2015 Kentucky Derby – Who Will Hit The Superfecta? – Super Screener
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2015 Kentucky Derby – Who Will Hit The Superfecta?

By: Mike Shutty

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the 2015 Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of energy distribution profiles (running styles) and their impact on the outcome of the top four Kentucky Derby finishers.

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile.  In addition, we captured the first and second call factional times of each race. To see it full-size, just click on the chart!

Derby Superfecta Chart

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

Highly regarded pace types haven taken down a lot of money over the history of the Kentucky Derby.  For example, in 2013 pace types Verrazano and Goldencents finished in the back half of the field, each at 8-1.  In 2012, Bodemeister went off as the favorite and looked much the winner in mid-stretch but failed to hold the bid.  Lion Heart and Peace Rules were also highly regarded “wire” types that managed to hit the board but missed the win.  Complete flops of recent favored pace types include; 2005 Bellamy Road, 2006 Brother Derek and 2010 Sidney’s Candy.  War Emblem in 2002 broke through with a wire-to-wire victory.  Prior to War Emblem’s wire victory, which was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from gate to wire? (the answer is the filly, Genuine Risk went wire-to-wire in the 1980 Kentucky Derby).

Here’s a summary of our findings from the chart above:

2015 Super Screener cover binder version v2• Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 28 of the slots or nearly 70%!  (Note, Barbaro and Super Saver ran more like closers in the Kentucky Derby though one could argue, prior to that race, they looked like Pressers.)

At least 2 Closer/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in each of the past 10 editions of the Kentucky Derby.  Seven of ten (70%) races featured 3 or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

• Nearly half of the second place finishers were comprised of tiring PACE/PRESSER types.

No Pace type has won the Kentucky Derby in the past 10 years.  Bodemeister came close with a 2nd place finish in 2012.

• In every year but 2003, at least one 20-1+ long shot has hit the Superfecta.

Over 80% of the 20-1+ board hitters were Closers/Deep Closers.

• The fourth place slot yielded seven 20-1+ bombers in the past 10 years.

For the 2015 Kentucky Derby, the Super Screener has projected the pace (and will confirm that projection once the final field is locked in). With more than half the field being pace/presser types this we have the key insights on the prospects of “those that close”.  To learn more about how the Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field, get your copy now!

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