28-1 WINNER – Horse-For-Course Angle Lights Up Payouts – RECAP – Super Screener
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28-1 WINNER – Horse-For-Course Angle Lights Up Payouts – RECAP

Sunshine Millions F/M Turf Preview

Saturday’s Millions Preview card at Gulfstream Park West appeared to offer some of the best wagering value among the day’s stakes races across the US. For the Super Screener’s featured 9th Race, that was an understatement in the end.

The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick in the race, #5 Picara was ranked 2nd overall and was just one of two “A” horses in the race. She was clearly pointed to this race, on the way to a new top effort as revealed by the Super Screener.

Picara lit up the board winning at unbelievable odds of 28-1 (Morning Line odds were posted at 12-1) via a perfect, ground-saving trip.

Here’s what the Super Screener uncovered on this very “haveable” long shot bomber:

#5 Picara won this race last year submitting her lifetime top. All 3 of her career victories have come on this turf course, so you have to respect her again here. The odds may be more generous this time around as she’ll be discounted off that better-than-it-looks prep race in which she ran evenly while wide… more of a public workout.  Great type of prep to move forward off of on the way to another top performance.

Let’s take a look at how the Super Screener surfaced this 28-1 shot and made it a top win pick.

Here’s the BRISNET Past Perfomances for Picara. The first thing we want to draw your attention to is that this 4 year-old filly has raced 13 times with all 3 wins coming at GPW in just 4 starts… but not even an Exacta finish in 9 starts at Gulfstream Park. Pretty strong evidence that this is a classic “horse for course”.

Next, note that she won this race last year rather handily resulting in a lifetime top.  In that race prior against easier, she won convincingly though the BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures were sub-90 across the board. However, because she won that prep race, she went off as one of the favorites next out in last year’s addition of the Millions F&M Turf Preview stakes.

Fast forward to this year. After that big win in this race last year, she really didn’t submit any race of note while racing at GP. In fact, she was put away after that race in March before returning in August to contest the hot pace in that come-back race where she faded badly. However, she followed that up with a much better effort going a bit longer running evenly throughout which was a significant improvement over that August race. Note too how she laid out 81+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures while traveling wide. That was nearly identical to the same way she laid out energy in the 1-mile prep last October in which she submitted 83+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures throughout before popping that new lifetime top in winning last year’s renewal of the F&M Turf Preview.

As the red arrows indicate, she was on a form cycle ascent prior to both her 2018 and 2019 victories in this race. In addition, the works leading up to this year’s affair (highlighted in yellow) were quite strong adding more confidence that she has been pointed to this race all along after winning it last year.

The $2 Exacta with Picara on top at 28-1 returned a heart-stopping $330.  Had the third place finisher #7 Souper Escape, the other Super Screener “A” horse, managed to get up for 2nd, we were looking at a $2 Exacta payoff north of $400. Fortunately, the suggested $.10 Superfecta Box was hit for over $360. Regardless, hopefully you used Picara prominently in your own wagers and enjoyed cashing big in this race!

Sunshine Millions Preview Juvenile Sprint Stakes

No surprises here in a race that the Super Screener deemed rather orderly.  The two “A” horses comprised the Exacta and Poe, the top B horse, completed the Trifecta. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this trio prior to the race:

#3 – Smash Factor – Top Value/Top Board Hitter/Pace/Presser – Super Screener highly values that route-to-sprint turn back especially after this gelding laid out nearly 90+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures throughout that 2-turn, route journey. Presses or controls the pace here but will have company. However, he is not a “need the lone lead” type. Last work was super sharp indicating he is holding form.  Very strong board hitter offering some value.

#5 – As Seen On Tv – Presser – Logical favorite that won his debut (always a positive signal) then followed that up with a sharp second place effort against tougher. Added ground will actually be welcomed as he nearly laid out the coveted 90+ BRIS Pace/Speed Rating figures traveling the 6 furlongs. Another 1/2 furlong will pose no problem. Continues to work like a good one. Top player.

#4 – Poe – Presser – Another that will be forwardly placed on a surface that is kind to that sort. While he has been no match for #3 Smash Factor, this quality colt crushed several others in here last out traveling the same distance on this surface. Is projected to improve slightly off that last effort and another offering that ideal balanced energy distribution profile. Strong board hitter.

Because it was a chalky outcome, the suggested Exacta and Trifecta tickets combined for just over $150.

Commonwealth Turf (G3)

After the late scratches of three horses in this race, #8 Mr Dumas moved up in the Super Screener Rankings and was now included on the win side of suggested wagering tickets. The fact that the turf did not come up ultra firm helped move him up into contention as well.

#11 – Mr Dumas – Presser – Could be getting good at the right time. Had an excuse two races back. Other than that, has improved in every start and projects to move forward again here for connections. Big win on this course last out and benefits from the cut back here.

In the end, he out dueled the Super Screener Top Win and Top Board Hitter pick, Tracksmith, for the hard-fought win but that was good enough to trigger the suggested $8 Exacta ticket to pay $436 with the Superfecta tickets missing by just one horse.

The Super Screener faded low-priced horses Spectacular Gem and Faraway Kitten, and neither one made an impact.

While it is naturally one of the slowest times of the year for stakes racing action, as you can see, there is still money to be made in these minor stakes affairs. More to come next weekend as we select the stakes race with the best shot to drive a solid return.

Until next weekend… go fast and win!

Mike

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