BC Implications in Iroquois, Pocahontas & Woodbine Mile – RECAP! – Super Screener
Super Screener
Don't Miss

BC Implications in Iroquois, Pocahontas & Woodbine Mile – RECAP!

Photo by: Mary M. Meek/Eclipse Sportswire

Pocahontas (G2)

Lazy Daisy, Super Screener Top Value horse and Top Win pick after the scratch of British Idiom, battled throughout this race with the longest shot on the board, His Glory, to prevail in the end for the hard-fought win. As stated above in the individual horse analysis, Lazy Daisy was facing much, much easier here and, while on the front end, got (for her) those correctly projected comfortable fractions that allowed for reserving plenty of energy for that final key furlong. 

#4 Lazy Daisy – TOP VALUE/Presser – Doug O’Neill charge was no match for the flashy Bast in the G1 Del Mar Debutante run just two weeks ago. Her debut, however, against tougher than she’ll face here, was quite strong. Anything close to that effort gets the job done. In that race she laid out energy in a pretty balanced way and will likely press here but do so comfortably. She is begging for more ground and will surprise to the positive if the quick turn around is not too much for her to overcome…value.

We cited the fact that Tom Amoss cleans up at this meet having won at a 40% clip last year. However, his filly, His Glory, improved by an inconceivable 12 lengths off her last two starts. With our apologies, while improvement was most expected, there was no data or analysis to support a 12-length move forward. As was the case this day and on many others, sometimes in these 2 year-old stretch-out route races, it pays to hit the ALL or ALL LONG SHOTS button behind the “A” horse(s) especially in 2nd place but that can get pretty expensive over the long haul. 

The Mike Maker recent claim, Shadilee, came up a big bust and may still being finishing this race at CD.

Iroquois (G3)

The G3 Iroquois kicked off the 2020 Kentucky Derby Points system and Dale Romans’ barn was the early benefactor of the 10 Derby points earned by his prized pupil, Dennis’ Moment, who looked quite sharp in cruising to victory as the odds-on favorite. He sat off the swift pace cut by Juggernaut biding his time in a clear trip and then took command in the stretch and held off a hard-worked Scabbard for the win.

It was a long way back to the rest of the field with many starters hampered by trouble at the gate. For example, our Top Long Shot pick, Automate, literally walked out of the gate, looked around and stutter stepped into the race spotting the field several lengths losing all chance at the start. While he wouldn’t have won the race, the Super Screener Top Value and Top Win pick, Letmeno, broke awkwardly and found himself last of all as they hit the quarter mile point. He was stuck some 20 lengths behind, but submitted a herculean effort running super wide and then just kept coming to snag 4th place, turning the tables by a nose over Rowdy Yates who defeated him last out.

Woodbine Mile (G1)

This has become a key prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Mile as invariably one of the top three finishers will impact the Trifecta in that race. We could certainly see Got Stormy not winning here after that monster effort in the Fourstar Dave against the boys, and we did pick her to come in 2nd… but to get defeated by El Tormenta?… well I felt “tormenta” all night after this race.

We knew this horse was a horse-for-course that is now 7 for 11 in the Trifecta, but all of that prior success came against so much easier. In addition, calculating the reserve energy this horse would have in the end given the pace set up and his relative position to that pace and energy dispensed in the early stages had him mid-pack at best.  In fact, a mid-pack finish we could see just due to the home court advantage… but a win over the likes of Got Stormy and Raging Bull?

Lucullan, who finished third, was disqualified as he took a sharp right turn toward the grandstand, bothering Raging Bull in the process, who was moved up to 3rd as the Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick.

Awesometank was quite the embarrassment as the Super Screener Top Win pick. Clearly the feared regression was not avoided and this “other” filly running against the boys (and girl) was right on the pace that was once again white hot with lethal fractions set at :22 4/5, :44 2/5 and 1:08 1/5. Got Stormy was close to that heat as well and was the only survivor in the end, which bodes well for her chances heading into the Breeder’s Cup Mile. In addition, she’ll much prefer the firmer, two-turn turf course at Santa Anita.

Summer Stakes (G1)

So, the Super Screener’s top two ranked horses, Decorated Invader and Vitalogy, finish 1st and 3rd. But then, Cadet Connelly, the longest shot on the board at 109-1, gets out to an easy, loafing lead with no challengers (in a race in which the projection was for a swift and pressured pace, which we apparently just got wrong) and then was all to out to hold off fast-closing, pace- disadvantaged Vitalogy by a diminishing head to finish second. This capped a weekend in which horses going off at 40-1 or higher were hitting the Exacta on an unprecedented basis.

What makes this really disappointing is the fact that we are isolating tough-to-have long shots that finish in the money on a regular basis but none of these particular bombers hit the radar. Much analysis will go into this pattern this week to see if this is a one-off phenomenon or if there is an underlying pattern. Whatever the data analysis reveals, it is clear that in these September 2-year-old races in which these babies are trying a route of ground for the first time, chaos can and will ensue.

Natalma (G1)

The Super Screener got it right in fading the two favorites, Fair Maiden and WalkInMarrkesh from the win spot, but it was Abscond rather than Diamond Sparkles (who finished a close up 4th) that got the job done in a blanket finish. The other Casse horse, Secret Stash opted to run here versus against the boys in the Summer Stakes and as it turns out, she would have finished mid pack in that race, too.

As the Breeders’ Cup preps continue to heat up the focus turns to Parx and the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) featuring an all-star cast of some of the best 3-year-olds in training, including Maximum Security, Improbable, War of Will and Mr. Money. And, the supporting undercard races that include the Cotillion (G1) and Gallant Bob (G2) may even end up being better wagering propositions. Not to be left out, both Belmont Park and Laurel Park are offering some graded stakes action that may be used to fill out our weekend line up.

Until next weekend… go fast and win!

Mike Shutty

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *