Big Favorite, Big Upset on Derby Trail – RECAP – Super Screener
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Big Favorite, Big Upset on Derby Trail – RECAP

Photo by: Parker Waters/Eclipse Sportswire

Risen Star (G2)

The Super Screener’s early Kentucky Derby pick, War of Will, ran one heck of a race here. Note that the next 4 finishers were the last 4 horses in the field during the early going, indicating that this was a pace collapse race. Yet, War of Will pressed and won easily once again. Country House, once again, broke slow and then failed to keep a straight line while coming on strong in the stretch, requiring Luis Saez to yank him to the right to straighten him out, which caused him to lose precious ground. Tons of talent… just needs to pull it all together.

The Super Screener did not give up on Roiland and once again proclaimed him to be a Top Long Shot player from among the 11 long shots in the race. He closed with a rush to grab third place at monster odds of nearly 70-1.  

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Roiland:

“#2 Roiland is his own worst enemy as he his so slow away from the gate and added blinkers didn’t really matter though they stay on here. Even with a clean break he’ll need pace pressure but gets that here. He’ll be coming on late and is a very useful “under” player at what will certainly be big odds.”

A suggested Trifecta paid $336 despite the chalk finishing 1-2.

Southwest (G2)

Can not make sense out of this finish at all. Only expected outcome that came through was the fact that Gray Attempt would falter as one of the favorites and he, indeed, finished last. Otherwise, nothing else made sense in this race and it was certainly the chaos race that was anticipated… just not the upset players that the Super Screener had isolated.

Rachel Alexandra (G2)

There was no question about whether or not Serengeti Empress was fit enough off the layoff, as she just crushed this field, dictating a much more modest pace than what she was a part of in her last couple of races.

The Super Screener pegged Eres Tu and Street Band as very viable long shot players to hit the board, which is exactly what they did, finishing 3rd and 4th at odds of 25-1 and 17-1, respectively.  

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the Top Long Shot picks prior to the race:

“#8 Eres Tu is dangerous here at a big price. This lone deep closer in the field was compromised by the soft pace set ups in her last two races and particularly in the slow-paced Silverbulletday Stakes in which she, arguably, ran the best race of the others that ran with her and are also entered here. She’ll get plenty of pace pressure up front and she’ll start her big run as they turn for home while continuing on with energy passing a lot of tiring fillies. A very logical board hitter at a more-than-air price.

“#2 Street Band will fly under the radar here given the fact she has faced softer Optional Claimer types in her last several outings. However, that last race was a break out kind of race in which she nearly laid out 90’s across all four BRIS Pace/Speed slots. She has now followed that race up with a huge work as she has so many times before. Jones is nearly 30% with repeat winners. Big shot to blow up the Exotics.”

Liora spoiled the party some as trainer Wayne Catalano wanted to scratch her from this race (not a positive signal) but decided to run her. She surprised finishing 2nd at 23-1, knocking us out of some juicy Trifectas as we had used #8 Eres Tu as a single on the bottom of Exotics.

Fair Grounds Handicap (G3)

Bandua was the lone Super Screener Top Long Shot pick and he nearly pulled off the massive upset at 35-1, but was collared late by the Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick, Synchrony. Bandua was a strong conviction long shot pick.  

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Bandua before the race:

“#11 Bandua is a very intriguing long shot. His early BRIS pace figures are huge especially when you consider the fact that he is more of a presser type. That, plus the cut back in distance here while coming off a long break are positive attributes for this horse as he is likely to have enough reserve energy to desperately hold onto a piece of the Exotics at a big, big price. He took the worst of it in that G1 Canadian International, cutting all those brutally hot fractions up front to leave nothing in the tank for the final stages of the race which opened the door for the closers. Gets managed better this time around and needs a race more like that great effort in the G1 Secretariat at Arlington Park last summer. That was his best race to date and a repeat of that effort puts him on the board at monster odds.”

Mineshaft (G3)

The Super Screener’s strong conviction win pick, Third Day, was forwardly placed and then inexplicably shuffled back before coming on again to miss that show spot by a neck. We needed him to hit the Exacta to have any chance of cashing. The Screener’s 4th and 3rd ranked horses, respectively, completed the Exacta. Flameaway, who had been away since August, returned to run a decent third off that long layoff.

We are coming up on one of those very thin stakes weekend that populates the calendar now and again. We’ll focus on using races with some playability even if it requires dipping into the allowance ranks.

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

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