Big Hits on the Derby Trail
- Updated: February 6, 2017
Well, El Areeb left no uncertainty as to who is the top Derby Dog in New York. He easily handled this field drawing away with something in reserve as the odds on favorite. He picks up 10 Derby points for the effort and he’ll headline the Gotham Stakes in a few weeks.
Super Screener really got it right with True Timber who scored big time finishing 2nd at odds of nearly 30-1 after doing all the dirty work on lead through most of the race. Had we known he would have gone off at anything close to those huge odds, he would have been the Super Screener top longshot pick as we had him ranked 4th overall in this race. Here’s the Super Screener insight on True Timber:
“(True Timber)” Sneaky good McLaughlin-trained colt. Showing solid progression in form cycle coupled with a sparkling last work. Moves forward off that last effort. Secures a ground-saving trip on the rail. Sits closer here. Offers attractive value.”
At 8-1 or 10-1 he offers “attractive value” but at 30-1, he was crazy good overlay.
Top Super Screener pick to upset El Areeb, Fillet of Sole, had a poor start breaking last of all and deserves another shot.
The Super Screener suggested Exacta wagers totaling $35 hit for about $650 and $1 Superfecta suggested wager scored for an additional $375.
G2 Holy Bull
The G2 Holy Bull stakes is viewed by some as the official kick off to the Kentucky Derby preps season and in most years it does come up pretty salty and this year was no exception. Connections of Classic Empire, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, chose this race for his 2017 debut. With only 10 Derby points on the line for the winner, Classic Empire didn’t need to win this but simply run a good race and leave something in tank which he did in finishing 3rd here as the odds-on favorite. The Super Screener said this about Classic Empire:
“This year’s edition comes up quite strong as it does most years with #3 Classic Empire, the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and the winner of an Eclipse award the clear favorite. This marks the talent-filled colt’s 2017 debut and the start of his journey on the road to the Derby. He will not run back to that Breeders’ Cup race but doesn’t need to here to take the top prize. Hard to find a knock on this precocious colt but keep in mind this is just the first of three races on the way to a spot in the gate on the 1st Saturday in May so he won’t be “all in” on this race.”
Our other “A” horse, Irish War Cry took to the two-turns with no problem and now moves prominently onto the Kentucky Derby stage and the “buzz” the Super Screener caught on this horse paid off…
If the champ is just shaking off rust and warming up, then trainer Graham Motion’s #5 Irish War Cry deserves strong consideration. There’s a lot of buzz about this being a special colt that will respond well to the stretch out to a route. Tons of late energy in his profile sprinting and that last work was super. Still a little green so the switch to jockey Joel Rosario is a good move.
Gunnevera, the Super Screener top board hitter completed the Exacta and the top three finishers in this race all deserve to move forward as early top contenders in what would be rated by the Super Screener as an “A” quality prep race.
G3 Forward Gal
The Super Screener top long shot pick in the race, Tequilita, won at odds of over 14-1! Sitting behind the pressured pace set by Ms Locust Point, Wildcat Kate and Bode’s Dream, the daughter of Union Rags then passed them and held on gamely to fend off a late charging Pretty City Dancer. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Tequilita:
#2 Tequilita is a sneaky good long shot that really moved up on first lasix in that Keeneland 7 furlong race which was her top on a steady progression forward. Last race was deceptively good before going on the shelf for over 75 days. Check out those brilliant January works and look for a bigger, stronger filly to show up here and surprise a few at handsome odds.
The top win picks of Ms Locust Point who exhausted herself doing all the work up front and Summer Luck who’s late bid was not enough to secure 3rd place.
Some of you used the Super Screener advice to use Brahms Cat at 45-1 on the bottom of Trifecta and Superfecta wagers and that keyed a huge score for you. That’s fantastic…here’s Super Screener scoop on Brahms Cat:
“(Brahms Cat) Best race was on the sloppy going and this deep closer will be picking up tiring front runners not suited to the extra furlong. Gets pace today and maintaining a positive form cycle. Shot to finish 3rd/4th at a price.”
G2 San Marcos
The G2 San Marcos race kind of fell apart when the several scratches resulted in whittling the field down from 14 to 9 horses. Our top pick, Itsinthepost, did not disappoint with a game 2nd place finish at odds of nearly 9-1. He got the soft pace he was looking for but Isotherm was just too good on this day nipping him at the wire for the win…here’s what the Super Screener had to say about both horses.
“#3 Itsinthepost rates high with the Super Screener and the morning line odds of 12-1 creates an attractive risk/reward exchange. Hasn’t missed the Superfecta in past 10 starts running the 1 to 1 1/8 mile distances. Added distance will not be a problem as that lone try was actually pretty good. Secures an ideal, cozy spot in the clear just off the rail adjacent to #1 A Red Tie Day and Behind #4 Blue Tone and #12 Hi Happy. Possesses the ideal energy distribution profile and moves up 2nd off the layoff. Maybe better under but price is right. BEST BOARD HITTER/TOP VALUE Hasn’t missed the Superfecta in his past 10 starts. Best races were his last 4 and form cycle progression continues 2nd off the layoff. Added distance no problem. Secures ideal position. Game”
“(Isotherm)4 yr-old has yet to run back to his September races but toss the two efforts on soft going…he clearly needs a very firm turf course. Hollywood Derby race saw some trouble but still did not show late foot. Puzzler…use?”
The Super Screener faded Texas Ryano some and that one finished up the track. We covered for a second place finish by Itsinthepost behind Isotherm and the $6 suggested Exacta wager returned nearly $360.
The Derby trail turns to Tampa Bay Downs for the Sam Davis Stakes and the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita with plenty of graded stakes action from around the country creating another super weekend of racing.
Until next weekend…Go fast and win!