Chalky Million Day Cashes – Recap – Super Screener
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Chalky Million Day Cashes – Recap

Photo by: Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire

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Going into the day, there was no question that Chad Brown was going to have a huge day both at Arlington Park and Saratoga… which translates to chalky outcomes all day long. Only the G3 Pucker Up offered some hope of a decent return, but even that race came up uneventful from an ROI standpoint as Brown swept the last four stakes races on the Arlington Park card. His top turf mare, Sistercharlie won back-to-back Beverly D. races (an unprecedented 5th Beverly D. win in a row for Chad Brown) while the division-leading Bricks and Mortar toyed with his rivals in  the Arlington Million field. 

Per usual, Aidan O’Brien’s shippers ran decent runner-up efforts in the Secretariat (Van Beethoven…28-1…after facing much tougher in Europe) and Magic Wand, who finished second once again to Bricks and Mortar, which was pretty impressive since this mare was facing the boys. If she goes in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, she’ll be a contender to consider though she’ll have to face Sistercharlie, who is cycling forward in her form cycle and looks to be the one to beat come the first Saturday in November. 

Every one of Chad Brown’s winners showed the same deadly weapon… that explosive late turn of foot. He trains this into his horses and it has paid dividends. The key advantage it provides is that it makes his horses immune to slow pace set ups, as they are able to simply outsprint those rivals that were advantaged by sitting on the front end of a modest pace. And, of course, they are a cinch when it comes to fast-paced races. Some of the best European turf horses have leveraged that same turn-of-foot advantage in taking down the numerous Breeders’ Cup races over the years. It will take Europe’s best to deny Chad Brown’s turf stars from taking down the top Breeders’ Cup turf races. 

There were plenty of cashes on the day, including hitting the 50-Cent Pick-4 six times, but you better cash often on a day that was filled with odds-on winners.

Saratoga Special (G2)

Wow! That was impressive — Green Light Go, one of two Super Screener “A” horses in this compact field, sat off the hot and pressured pace that we anticipated and then proceeded to just demolish this field in hand via a very professional-looking performance. And, what’s even more exciting is that this colt projects to only get better as they go longer. He benefited from a perfect trip, but he did everything the right way in taking this one down. Next stop is likely to be the Champagne Stakes to be run at Belmont Park that first weekend of October, dubbed Super Saturday.  This is a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The other Super Screener “A” horse, Noose, was off a step slow, trailed the field behind the fast pace and continued on, as expected, with interest. Nothing stellar here, just a good 2nd place finish behind a much superior foe.

“This year’s edition of the G2 Saratoga Special is no exception as 5 of the 8 horses entered were on or just off the lead in their last race running shorter so you can expect at least 4 horses to all be competing for the early lead. No horse will be far back but #1 Noose is the only horse to have run 6 furlongs and he rated kindly in that debut race concluding with an impressive BRIS Late Pace figure of 96. This colt is bred to route, his last work could not have been any sharper and he gets plenty of pace to aid his late kick. Use this one solidly in first and back him up some in second. #3 Green Light Go will be the favorite and he will press rather than be part of those contesting the early lead. He distributed energy in a balanced way going 5.5 furlongs and is bred to go 1 1/4 miles. Will relish the added ground and another that is burning up the track in the mornings. In addition, he is probably facing easier here then he did in his impressive debut win. The winner of this race will come from one of these two horses.”

Don’t overlook Tuggle’s performance here.  He did all the work pressing that hot and pressured pace and was super tough coming down the lane refusing to concede but the swift pace got to him in that final furlong. He’ll only move forward off that effort and with added ground while offering value. The suggested $30 Exacta 3-1 ticket hit for $210.

Fourstardave (G1)

Got Stormy, the mare facing the boys, was anything but vulnerable coming back in just 7 days to do what she did last out in the De La Rose, which was to stalk the hot pace and then pounce with authority for the draw-away win. Our strategy in this race was to leverage the fact that Raging Bull and Uni were both shoe ins to hit the Superfecta and to play them more “under” than on top.  That part of the strategy worked but Made You Look, the top win pick, who looked the winner mid stretch was swallowed up by the top four finishers in that final furlong and we did not include Got Stormy in the win spot. Note, runners exiting the Forbidden Apple did not make an impact here.

Beverly D (G1)

This race went through Sistercharlie, the horse the Super Screener indicated had the best shot of any of his runners on the day for a big, high-conviction win from the Chad Brown barn. She won this decisively with plenty left in the tank. Here’s the scary thing… she’s only starting her 2019 campaign with this being just her 2nd start since November. She’ll race one more time, perhaps in the G1 Flower Bowl, before going on to the Breeder’s Cup. Frankly, not sure who the better horse is… Sistercharlie the mare or the stablemate, Bricks and Mortar.

“There are only two win contenders in the race and each player brings a strong case to this match. Chad Brown’s uber-consistent mare, #7 Sistercharlie might be one of the most reliable win bets on the day but offers no value. Of all his charges, this one might possess the most devastating turn of foot of all…even more so than Bricks and Mortar who is running in the Arlington Million. #7 Sistercharlie has won four G1 races in a row including the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare turf. She did not debut in 2019 until a month ago and it was a powerful win. She moves forward off that effort for another outstanding performance here.” In the suggested “Saver” ticket, we used the long shot player, Awesometank in 2nd which is where she finished at 15-1 locking both Sistercharlie and Aidan O’Brien’s Fleeting in 1st and 3rd.  Sistercharlie did her part but Fleeting missed 3rd place by less than a length. Regardless, the payoffs were paltry.

Secretariat (G1)

The Super Screener favored Chad Brown’s Valid Point over stablemate Fog of War, who really disappointed here finishing 6th as the favorite with no real excuses. The Super Screener Top Win pick, Valid Point, enjoyed a perfect trip, taken back to last off the highly-pressured pace and was then spun out on the final turn to run unobstructed down the stretch to hold off a determined Van Beethoven for the win. What was most impressive about this victory is that Valid Point was able to win this coming from dead last while sitting off the modest early pace, and he now remains undefeated in 3 starts lifetime starts. Clearly, another turf star in the making for trainer Chad Brown.

#7 Valid Point – TOP VALUE/Closer – Very lightly-raced stablemate to #6 Fog of War that has won both of this starts flashing that brilliant turn of foot so common in Chad Brown trainees. The price will be better than what we’ll get on #6 Fog of War so this potent player offers considerably better value. Note that Castellano has been on both horses and sticks with this one. Tactical and powerful.

Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Van Beethoven experienced a very tough trip. He was ping-ponged at the start, getting shuffled back a few lengths, then, via that rail trip, had to tap the brakes twice before finding a seam mid-stretch but it was too late for this massive colt, as he does not have that quick of turn of foot, but he kept coming and gaining as they approached the wire. Watch for O’Brien to bring this one back for the Breeders’ Cup Mile seeking a better trip. Quite frankly, we did not give this horse enough credit for that massive class drop here, instead, focusing too much on his poor recent form running in sprints.  That mistake will not be repeated in the future.

Once again, keep an eye on the pace horse, The Last Zip, as he did all the work on the front end but held on for a game 3rd despite dueling throughout. 
From a wagering perspective, what was most frustrating is that we had a Trifecta ticket with Valid Point on top, and The Last Zip in 2nd at 28-1 and Van Beethoven (via the all button) in 3rd. It was the ¾- length difference that denied the over $1,000 score.

Arlington Million (G1)

There was no question that Bricks and Mortar was primed for a top effort and was the one to beat. He certainly delivered, passing Magic Wand late to snag the win and hand Chad Brown the G1 sweep at Arlington Park. It was a very formful race and the Super Screener suggested Exacta hit for about $150 in yet another chalky affair. It will take a horse like the immortal Enable from Europe to knock Bricks and Mortar off this pedestal when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and even then, we may have not yet seen the best of Bricks and Mortar.  Interesting run up to the Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Pucker Up (G3)

This was the race we had been waiting for, as it offered potential value and Chad Brown’s charge, Café Americano, didn’t look invincible though she was a win contender. Well, she was invincible and won going away at 5-2 as the post time favorite. The Super Screener Top Value and Top Board Hitter pick, Princesa Carolina did dig in to hold a clear 2nd with Art of Almost, bet down to 5-2, coming from the clouds to complete the chalky Trifecta which was hit via one of the suggested Super Screener wagers. 

The $.50 Pick 4 was hit 6 times through the suggested Super Screener wagers, but when the Chad Brown favorite wins every race, it is no wonder the payoff for each ticket came back to be a paltry $29. It was a day of many cashes, a close big hit and a great display of horse racing from the nation’s top turf stakes trainer. 

The spotlight moves from Arlington Park’s signature day to Del Mar’s marquee card that is led by the Pacific Classic (G1) which is a “win and you’re in” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  It is the supporting cast of Graded Stakes on the Pacific Classic card that are even more enticing from a wagering perspective so look for the opportunity to ring the bell come this Saturday. 

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

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