Florida Derby Posts Big Returns – See Results Inside! – Super Screener
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Florida Derby Posts Big Returns – See Results Inside!

Photo by Bob Aaron/Eclipse Sportswire

Florida Derby (G1)

The Super Screener had spotted Audible as a top Kentucky Derby contender after his win in the Holy Bull a few months ago. In fact, of all the preps run in January and February, the Super Screener rated Audible’s Holy Bull win as THE top early prep performance. He received a perfect Super Screener score of 100 as he met all the criteria of prior Kentucky Derby winners and the handicapping patterns they had shown in their early preps. He validated that early praise with a scintillating win in the G1 Florida Derby. He did get the perfect pace set up but this horse is very tactical and Velazquez just anticipated the ding dong battle that would create a suicidal pace set up from the dueling Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power. Had the pace been slower, Audible would have been closer to the pace, so he won’t be knocked for taking advantage of the swift and pressured pace here. He laid out a ton of energy in a very balanced way and he is coming into the Kentucky Derby in top form with more upside possible.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Audible prior to the race:

Considering that this was just the third start for the Super Screener Top Long Shot, Hofburg, it was another solid effort 2nd off the layoff. He took advantage of the hot pace and tried to chase down Audible late but drew away from the rest of the field in a top performance. Too much too soon? He’ll be an interesting player in the Kentucky Derby field.

The performance that is getting kind of overlooked here is that of Mississippi. He was closest to that blistering early pace yet he was game enough to hold on for solid 3rd place. No matter where he runs next, that performance bodes well for his next outing.

The Super Screener rating for this prep comes back as an “A”.

The Super Screener suggested wagers returned nearly $1,250.

UAE Derby (G2)

Post his absolutely devastating win the UAE Derby, there is a lot of buzz surrounding Mendelssohn with that amazing 18 ¾ lengths, crushing victory setting a record time for that distance on the Meydan course. It doesn’t matter that the competition was weak and the racing surface favored speed… that performance stood out on its own. There has been bullishness before regarding horses exiting this race but they came with the usual doubts as well. In this case however, Mendelssohn is coming into the G1 Kentucky Derby the right way. He shipped to the US to win the 2017 G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf; he has foundation; he is bred to run on dirt. He has two preps now coming into the Kentucky Derby; he was pointed to this race since last Fall… not after the UAE Derby. He is a legitimate Kentucky Derby win contender and, like Audible, he is tactical so he can press or come from off the pace. Still has to overcome that long ship in but he has done it before with success so not as much of an issue with this $3 million, Aidan O’Brien-trained colt.

 

More Saturday Results

Honey Fox (G3)

Lull took command and never looked back cutting brutally fast fractions in the process to hold on to the hard-earned victory robbing the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Res Ipsa, from getting the upset win after the perfect trip.

The Super Screener Vulnerable Favorite selection, On Leave, could only muster a 3rd place finish after also enjoying the perfect trip but clearly needed the race after the long layoff.

Top choices Grizzel and Glory to Kitten did absolutely nothing with little or no excuses.

Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2)

Coach Rocks had an easy trip last out securing the lone, clear lead through dawdling fractions finally breaking her maiden in her first 2-turn route dirt race.  It was anticipated that she would get caught up in the speed-heavy set up here but she was indeed the “fooler” in that jockey Luis Saez was smart enough to take this one back and she responded in kind getting the perfect trip off the very heavily pressured pace for the win.  Take Charge Paula ran the best race of the bunch showing a lot of tenacity in not succumbing to the early pace pressure and continuing on to distance the field with a sharp looking 2nd place finish.

The Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick, Princess Warrior, passed tired horses and closed well to finish a clear 3rd.  The Super Screener Vulnerable Favorite, Blonde Bomber, confirmed that her good form from last year is still no where to be found.

 

Baseball is back, the Master’s tournament is this week, the polar ice cap is pulling back from the Midwest and this Saturday features the Trifecta of prep weekends… does it get any better than this? The G1 Santa Anita Derby, G2 Blue Grass Stakes and G2 Wood Memorial will all be run on Saturday and each race is headlined by current top-rated Kentucky Derby contenders. So, plenty of intrigue left and we look forward to analyzing it all to replicate our G1 Florida Derby performance.  

Until next week, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

 

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