Hit The 2016 Kentucky Derby Superfecta! – Super Screener
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Hit The 2016 Kentucky Derby Superfecta!

Kentucky Derby… A Shift Away from Closers?

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of energy distribution profiles (running styles) and their impact on the outcome of the top four Kentucky Derby. Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 13 editions of the Kentucky Derby, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. In addition, we captured the first and second call factional times of each race.

SUperfecta CHart 5-02-2016(click to see the full-size version)

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

Highly regarded pace types haven taken down a lot of money over the history of the Kentucky Derby. For example, in 2015 American Pharoah’s highly regarded stablemate Dortmund managed just a third place finish at 4-1 serving in his role as the pace of the race. In 2013 pace types Verrazano and Goldencents finished in the back half of the field, each at 8-1. In 2012, Bodemeister went off as the favorite and looked much the winner in mid-stretch but failed to hold the bid. Lion Heart and Peace Rules were also highly regarded “wire” types that managed to hit the board but missed the win. Complete flops of recent favored pace types include: 2005 Bellamy Road, 2006 Brother Derek and 2010 Sidney’s Candy. War Emblem in 2002 broke through with a wire-to- wire victory. Prior to War Emblem’s wire victory, which was the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from gate to wire? (the answer is the filly, Genuine Risk went wire-to- wire in the 1980 Kentucky Derby).

Here’s a summary of our findings from the chart above:

• Of the 52 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 35 of the slots or 67%. (Note, Barbaro and Super Saver ran more like closers in the Kentucky Derby though one could argue, prior to that race, they looked like Pressers.)

• Third and fourth place accounted for the vast majority of closer finishes with nearly 80% of the 26 available slots taken up by a closer.

• For the first time in many, many years, the 2015 Derby trifecta was made up of no closers. Will this become the norm or was it the exception?

• At least 2 Closer/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in 12 of the past 13 editions of the Kentucky Derby. Nine of thirteen races (70%) featured 3 or more closer types hitting the top four positions.

• Nearly half of the second place finishers were comprised of tiring PACE/PRESSER types.

• No Pace type has won the Kentucky Derby in the past 13 years. Bodemeister came close with a 2 nd place finish in 2012.

• In every year except 2015, at least one 20-1+ long shot has hit the Superfecta (Danzig Moon did finish 5 th at 22-1 in the 2015 Derby)

• Over 80% of the 20-1+ board hitters were Closers/Deep Closers.

• The fourth place slot yielded seven 20-1+ bombers in the past 13 years.
2016 Kentucky Derby Super Screener picks available 615x400For the 2016 Kentucky Derby, the Super Screener has projected the pace (and will confirm that projection once the final field is locked in). With only one pace horse and a few pressers will the 2016 outcome look like last year’s or will one or two of the many 20-1+ long shot closers manage to hit the board?

To learn more about how the Super Screener uses historical pace, speed, cycle and trends to separate the Derby field, Get Your Copy Now!