Is American Pharoah in the Belmont WIN ZONE?
- Updated: June 2, 2015
What is this Year’s Belmont Win Zone?
As we had done for the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, we went back over the past 15 Belmont Stakes to plot out where each winner was positioned on the track at the halfway point of the race (6 furlongs into the race and heading into the far turn). Like the Preakness Stakes, two distinct Win Zones emerged but there were some interesting insights revealed that go counter to what people generally believe about running styles and the Belmont Stakes
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Some key insights to be gleaned from this graphic include the following:
1 to 5 – Not a single horse over the past 15 years sat back more than 5 lengths off the lead as the field approached the far turn. Jazil and Birdstone were positioned 5 lengths off the leader heading into the final turn in races that featured some of the swiftest pace outcomes during this period.
Hard to Wire — It is difficult to win on the lead as only Da’Tara won going wire-to-wire and it was on an easy, uncontested lead. Commendable was actually about a half length off the lead when he won. Pace setter Commissioner was denied the win last year as Tonalist just nailed him a jump or two before the wire.
Half and Half – About half of the past Belmont winners belonged to the forwardly placed group comprising Win Zone 1 while the other half took up an off-the-pace position in Win Stay Outside – About 2/3rds of the past 15 winners took the outside route to victory sitting 3 to 4 wide off the rail and this was particularly true for horses pressing the pace. Off-the-pace winners worked a wider zone sitting anywhere from the rail to 4 out.
Two by Four – A third of the past 15 Belmont winners sat 4 wide and within 2 lengths of the lead making that area the sweet spot of all Win Zones.
Pace Makes the Zone – On average races won through Win Zone 1 featured a very modest 6 furlong pace time of 1:13 2/5 while the Win Zone 2 winners benefited from a somewhat swifter mid-race pace of 1:12 3/5.
From What Zone will this Year’s Belmont Stakes Winner Come?
• Based on the probable 2015 Belmont Stakes field and the quality there in, the Super Screener is projecting a 6-furlong pace time of approximately 1:13 1/5 (assuming a fast track) as American Pharoah will take command early and try to control the pace or sit within a length of a bolder leader. Given this moderate pace estimate, it suggests the winner this year will come from Win Zone 1.
• The Super Screener is indicating that there will only be four horses, at most, that will be sitting in Win Zone 1 at the half-way point in the race.
• As many as 5 horses and certainly 4 will be sitting out side of both Win Zones (more than 5 lengths back at the 6-furlong point) with no chance for the win.
The Belmont Super Screener will evaluate the final field, derive a revised projected pace time and evaluate the impact of pace on each horse’s natural energy distribution profile.
Order the Belmont Super Screener now to get into the Win Zone!
