Last-Minute Hit at Sam Houston + Fountain of Youth Preview! – Super Screener
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Last-Minute Hit at Sam Houston + Fountain of Youth Preview!

Houston Turf Stakes

Due to a technical issue, the Saturday update was late getting sent out. We apologize, and hope that you were still able to take advantage of the analysis for the Houston Turf Stakes.

For a minute there it looked like Don’t Blame Dexter was going to draw away for the win after dueling but cutting soft fractions throughout.  But in the end, 4 horses hit the wire separated only by a neck.  Bonjour Baby was the beneficiary of the well-timed nod and a Super Screener highly ranked horse-for-course, P Millers Clock, finished a game 2nd at 12-1.  The Super Screener lone Top Long Shot pick #4 Gavin completed the Trifecta at odds of 38-1.

The Super Screener suggested Trifecta and Superfecta wagers came back to return nearly $900.  

Texas Glitter Stakes

It was the “other” Pletcher horse, Salmanazzar, that leveraged the rail position and found no competitors on the front end getting the clear lone lead cutting swift fractions on the firm turf course and expertly handled by John Velazquez not allowing stablemate, Barbarossa, to advance along the rail turning for home.  The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick secured the 2nd place finish by a nose at odds of 13-1 while chasing Salmanazar throughout the race.  

“An intriguing colt that is also bred to sprint and should take to the turf is the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, #4 Shangroyal.  No horse in here beat a better field than this one did even though it was back in July.  Blinkers come off and he should own a pace advantage.  Look for a pressing trip from this $400k colt who gets first run on horses coming from off the pace…value.”

The aforementioned Barbarossa had nowhere to go getting bottled up for the length of the stretch breaking free too late in what turned out to be a “merry-go-round” race as the top three went around the track in pretty much the same 1-2-3 positions.

Hal’s Hope Stakes

Economic Model’s penchant for 1-turn miles more than outweighed the Super Screener concerns about the 120+ day layoff and the move to the GP track surface.  He was in control throughout in an odd race that unfortunately included Pletcher’s Send It In breaking down around the half mile pole.  Stablemate, Malagacy, has a long way to go to get back in contention against older horses as he led for a half mile and then proceeded to fade to last.  Irish War Cry did make a good account of himself finishing a solid 2nd off that long layoff.  Expect to see him contesting 1-turn mile Stakes races at Belmont Park this summer.

Wishing Well Stakes

A complete miss…not even close…no excuses. The projected hot and contested pace materialized but after dueling with Super Screener Vulnerable Fave Algorhythmic for 4 furlongs, Mongolian Shopper, continued on to win at 23-1 while the former finished in the back of the field.  

Gulfstream Park moves to center stage next Saturday with a crazy good card that includes 7 graded stakes anchored by the key Kentucky Derby Prep, the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes which features the long awaited 2018 debut of the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, Good Magic.  

Fountain of Youth Stats

 Nine of the race’s last 10 winners struck at odds of 5-1 or shorter.

 Nine of the last 10 winners made a previous start at Gulfstream Park in January or February. The last horse to win off a layoff and come out of a race other than Gulfstream was Union Rags, who was an even-money favorite.

 Closers have struggled in the Fountain of Youth regardless of field size and pace scenarios. Only three have finished in the Exacta in the last decade.

 Of the 40 available Superfecta spots in the last 10 renewals of the Fountain of Youth, horses that made their previous start at Gulfstream took 28 of them (70 percent).

Mike says “these stats bode well” for Good Magic, the favorite following Union Rags’ path, as well as Storm Runner and Free Drop Billy, who ran solid route races recently at Gulfstream Park.

Plenty of other rich stakes races on the card to choose from to create an attractive Super Screener line up as we unearth more of those hard to have long shots…don’t miss it!

Until then, Go Fast and Win!

 

Mike

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