Louisiana Derby Results + 91-1 Longshot Clinches Muniz Superfecta – Super Screener
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Louisiana Derby Results + 91-1 Longshot Clinches Muniz Superfecta

Photo by Hodges Photography

Louisiana Derby (G2)

Now that the Kentucky Derby preps move to the critical 1 1/8th miles, we begin to see the true contenders separate from the faint-hearted pretenders.  Both Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair now move to the latter category as both fell flat in this race.  

While Noble Indy won the race with added blinkers, it did not come back as one that jumped off the page as a Kentucky Derby winning effort. As John Velazquez said, this horse is still quite green though did show some courage as he came back on Lone Sailor after being passed by that rival in the stretch. He did get the perfect trip here, however, and his BRIS Late Pace figure came back pretty weak, showing he was tiring late. With blinkers added he’ll be forwardly placed in the Kentucky Derby and will contribute to the pace for his more formidable stablemates, Magnum Moon and Audible.  

The Super Screener Top Board Hitter Pick, My Boy Jack, ran the best race here in finishing 3rd. Connections played out a Kentucky Derby dress rehearsal for this horse as Kent Desormeaux swung this one 7 to 8 wide on the middle of the far turn and continued on the far outside down the stretch to get within a ½ length of Noble Indy. That move from the ¾ pole to mid stretch was just electrifying. He flattened some nearing the wire but actually ran on well in the gallop out. There is no question about the foundation on this horse and this race sets him up well for a strong effort in the Kentucky Derby, which will be his 4th race off a layoff. He certainly has proven that he can run on any type of ground, which makes him a more reliable player no matter what the conditions of the Churchill Downs race track may be on the first Saturday in May.  

The Super Screener Top Long Shot picks came back to finish 2nd (Lone Sailor 9-1) and 4th (Givemeaminit).

The Super Screener rating for this prep comes back as a “B”.

 

Sunland Derby (G3)

While the “numbers” came back somewhat anemic for this race, there is no denying that Runaway Ghost, who raced very wide throughout, ran a good race… not good enough to hit the Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby, but it was a solid effort. The jockey was wise enough to take this one off the very fast and pressured pace that was anticipated by the Super Screener. Note, that the four horses that were out in front in the early part of the running all finished in the back half of the field. This should have been the perfect set up for Hollywood Star who had trouble at the start but went nowhere thereafter finishing 2nd to last. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with the colt.  

Peace showed that he does not belong on the Kentucky Derby trail despite finishing 3rd in this race and he’ll now return back to running on the turf.

The Super Screener vulnerable favorite, All Out Blitz, coincidentally, finished 8th — where he was ranked by the Screener. This outcome confirms that he’ll do his best running when he returns to sprinting.  

As a Top Value play, Dream Baby Dream, took advantage of the swift and pressured pace, closed well for solid 2nd place while narrowing the win margin on Runaway Ghost.

“…However, the projected highly pressured pace set up and race flow definitely favors #10 Dream Baby Dream whose energy distribution profile is decidedly late.  No horse will be running faster down the stretch than this one.  He does add blinkers to help him get more involved earlier as he did in his sprint races.  He projects to move forward of that series of 3rd place finishes at Oaklawn Park. Picks up the same jockey, Alfredo Juarez Jr., who guided Hence to victory in last year’s edition of the G3 Sunland Derby.”

In the end, the Super Screener has assigned a Derby prep rating of “C-“ to this race.

Muniz Memorial (G2)

The pace in this race was projected to be quite slow and with light pressure which is exactly what materialized.  The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Zulu Alpha, took command early as expected but had plenty left in the tank after doling out modest fractions to hold onto third at gargantuan odds of 91-1!  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Zulu Alpha before the race:

“#2 Zulu Alpha will be a Super Screener Top Long Shot pick again and received that status in his last race when he finished 5th at 82-1 after a troubled trip when he ran up on the heels of a foe in mid stretch and was forced to take up losing all momentum.  He gathered himself up and came on again but it was all over. He will be a huge price again here and does get a pace advantage and the benefit of a race off that layoff to build on. Sharp work last out and he is ready to outrun his very long odds.”

Arklow did indeed move forward 2nd off the layoff and flashed that brilliance we had seen a year ago and he delivered on the value front going off at odds of nearly 12-1.

“#4 Arklow may get overlooked some here but he offers tremendous value at anything close to 10-1.  Showed a lot of promise a year ago and could be coming back to that prior good form here.  Dangerous value play”.

Synchrony and Mr. Misunderstood both came back from their strong G2 Fair Grounds Handicap efforts to do it again here with Synchrony making it two in a row and Mr. Misunderstood completing the Superfecta.

Top win pick Lucullan could not afford breaking slow in a race with a pedestrian pace and was way too far back to ever make an impact on the final result, but he was the fastest mover down the stretch and this one should be played back next time out with a better pace set up.

The Super Screener suggested $.20 Superfecta wager returned $907.

 

Fair Grounds Oaks (G2)

After a couple of scratches, the field was reduced to just 7 rivals. Classy Act did exactly what she was expected to do in opening up a commanding lead while cutting very brisk fractions but they were too swift on a day favoring closers leaving her without enough in the tank to get the job done. Instead, it was yet another Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Chocolate Martini that came through to take down the win in come-from-behind fashion. It was the Super Screener Top Board Hitter, Eskimo Kisses, that came from far back in last to close for a very sharp 2nd.  On the gallop out this one easily passed Chocolate Martini and is one to tab as a top contender for the Kentucky Oaks.

Wonder Gadot finished on the bottom of the Trifecta again as anticipated and failed to deliver that break through race everyone is looking for.

A Super Screener suggested Exacta wager with long shot Chocolate Martini on top came back to pay $587.

 

The Florida Derby (G1) and the Dubai UAE Derby (G1) headline the Kentucky Derby trail this coming weekend. Both Gulfstream Park and Aqueduct will feature a strong stakes undercard.

Until next week, Go Fast and Win!

Mike