Pegasus World Cup – CRUSHED IT – Super Screener
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Pegasus World Cup – CRUSHED IT

Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire

G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational

The inaugural Pegasus was the coronation of Arrogate as the absolute best US-based horse in training right now and perhaps even the best, globally.  The Super Screener first spotted this horse prior to the Travers as something special and made him our top play in that race at 11-1.  In the Breeders’ Cup Classic he was our clear top win choice and we singled him heavily in Exotics which included juicy Exacta and a couple of Superfecta hits.  For the inaugural running of the Pegasus, he was the clear, highly convicted win choice…no real debate as to Arrogate vs. California Chrome for the Super Screener.

 

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Arrogate:

 

“#1 Arrogate has the advantage here and will be able to endure swift, pressured fractions best of any rival in the race.  #12 California Chrome, on the other hand, has run every 30-40 days since July, is 6 years old now and gets the poor post draw. (Arrogate) A true freak, lightly raced, more upside than “Chrome” secures much better post.  Ideal energy distribution for this race.  In top condition.  Sits behind “Chrome” and Noble Bird then pounces mid stretch for the win.”  

 

Arrogate will stay in training and think about all the implications for racing in the Stakes races ahead.  If Baffert can hold this beast together, it could be a very exciting year for thoroughbred racing as a new star is born that will draw more and more interest from casual fans.  Breeders’ Cup Classic and Pegasus repeater?  Getting a bit ahead of ourselves but what a race horse and what a show of dominance in the Pegasus.  

 

The Super Screener picked the Arrogate/Shaman Ghost ice cold and included $52 of suggested Exacta wagers to that effect which ended up cashing for over $900 and that is with a 4/5 shot on top.  After scratching from the Breeders’ Cup Classic as our absolute best and only top long shot bomber play, we couldn’t wait for Shaman Ghost to square off in the Pegasus.  Here’s what we said about this very sneaky good horse:

 

#7 Shaman Ghost is the clear long shot bomber pick here.  We were licking our chops planning a big score in the Exotics behind Arrogate in the BC Classic with this player but he was scratched with a slight fever.  This horse is so much better than what we see on paper and patiently handled by trainer James Jerkins.  He is coming into this ready to bust a lifetime top at odds near 20-1.  What a play under with a very slight chance to win it all.  Perfect energy distribution profile for this sitting 3 to 4 lengths off the energy-zapping speedsters.  Has only missed the Trifecta once in the past 10 starts…and put a line through the Suburban as he bled that day.  Form cycle analysis and recent works say watch out!…big time player here and much better than his last race 60 days ago as he really needed that race.

 

“TOP LONG SHOT (Shaman Ghost) so much better than on paper.  Poised for a lifetime top.  No horse gets a more perfect trip nor possesses a better, more balanced energy distribution profile.  Strong play under, slight win upset shot.  Value!”

 

The Super Screener suggested $1 Superfecta wager singling Arrogate on top also hit for over $460 capping a great ending to a terrific day of racing!

Did YOU cash on the Pegasus?? Tell us in the comments or write to mail@superscreener.com!

 

G3 W. L. McKnight

Frustrating race in that the Super Screener really identified a key value horse in #11 Sadler’s Joy (8-1) that just missed the win by a head after finishing fastest of all but #1 Taghleeb proved tougher than anticipated off the 2 mile win last out showing he was better than the Super Screener predicted.

 

Patterson Cross was a horse the Super Screener correctly projected that he would move forward today but would need a big, big jump in form to compete with these.  Good to note that Bill Mott can move these lightly raced types up in a big way for these G3 turf stakes races.  That precocious colt successfully thwarted a suggested wager hit by holding on by just a nose over Twilight Eclipse keying a very nice $1 Trifecta pay off of over $1,500.  The most painful and most joyous outcome in horse racing…getting beaten or winning by a nose.
The Super Screener has been isolating top long shot bombers that have routinely hit the board all year long.  Generous Kitten was one such spotlighted long shot but he was last turning for home and the the deep closer had too much to do against a modest pace and finished a disappointing 7th just over two lengths back off the winner at 36-1…ugh!

 

G3 La Prevoyante

Another very chalky outcome as the two favorites in the race finished 1-2.  No surprises here as Suffused found this company and distance more to his liking as projected.  Our top value pick, #3 Try Your Luck did get a good trip and held on gallantly for third which triggered, in total, $4 dollars worth of suggested Trifecta wagers to hit.  Always good to cash as we don’t have control over outcomes that can come up chalky despite best screening of high value races.

 

Another note…a lot of fellow pro handicappers were all over Wapi in this race but the Super Screener just could not see it and that horse finished last of all.  Flipcup, a Screener top long shot pick, on the other hand, was a big disappointment and it appears all horses exiting the Via Borgehese run at GP on 12/31 came up short indicating that race was definitely a cut or two below.

 

One horse that the Super Screener wrestled with was #1 Quiet Kitten. She was very much off form in her last two races and coming back after a long lay off but moved to the Dale Romans barn which was a very positive criterion for the Super Screener as was the past success on this turf course and the super good work last out.  We should have been bolder and made this one a foggy long shot bomber pick.  The question we posed was answered in the affirmative as follows:

 

“(Quiet Kitten) One of the pace setters has been away since July.  Moves to hot Romans barn and loves this turf.  Bottom of Exotics?
Hopefully, some of you, indeed, included Quiet Kitten in the bottom of your Superfectas.

 

Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint

From the top four ranked horses by the Super Screener came the Trifecta outcome for this race with horse-for-course, Power Alert, desperately hanging on to prevail by a nose over the fast- closing top pick, Rainbow Heir.  And, moving from 12th to 3rd in one furlong, the even faster rush by the Super Screener top long shot pick, Long On Value, was impressive but not enough for the win.

 

“(Power Alert) 4 for 4 on this turf/distance and 11/16 in the Trifecta overall at this distance.  Ran a near lifetime top last out.  Old gelding can still get the job done.  Definitely use in Exotic wagers with some use on top despite low value.”

 

Of other note, the Super Screener had the Pletcher favorite, Manhattan Dan ranked very low as this need-the-lead type horse was not going to secure an uncontested lead compromising his chances.  Here’s what we had to say about the post-time favorite.

 

#2 Manhattan Dan, now moved over to the Todd Pletcher barn and reunited with jockey, Javier Castellano, is your projected pace leader and a need-the-clear-lead type for the win.  Doubtful the colt will get that set up as #7 Doctor J Dub, #9 Pay Any Price and #11 Power Alert could all get out in front to battle for that lead spot, so tons of pressure with a swift pace is the projected set up for this race.
Not sure what happened to Mongolian Saturday as he was never in the race.

 

If you thought Saturday’s action was exciting, hold on as we are just getting started!  Next weekend our attention turns back to the Kentucky Derby trail as reigning 2 year-old champion from last year, Classic Empire, makes his return against 6 or 7 other foes in the G2 Holy Bull.  Aqueduct will kick off the Derby prep season in New York with the G3 withers.  Not to be out done, Santa Anita will feature three G2 stakes races on their Saturday card so plenty of great races to choose from for a salty Super Screener Stakes weekend.

 

Until next weekend…Go fast and win!
Mike

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