Preakness 2013 Wrap–Up: Oxbow Upsets at 15-1 – Super Screener
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Preakness 2013 Wrap–Up: Oxbow Upsets at 15-1

Slowest Preakness in 20 Years Blew Up Tickets…


While in the Derby we felt like we had all the right horses, but just missed on tickets – which allowed many readers to cash in – the Preakness wasn’t even close.

We share in the disappointment that some of you have expressed over the outcome of this year’s Preakness Super Screener.  After hitting the Preakness trifecta three years in a row, the slowest pace Preakness in more than 20 years went counter to the swift race anticipated and our top two win contenders finished third and fourth as the race turned into a 2 furlong sprint. We’ve been analyzing the race to make sure we can learn from this year’s outcome and see where it fits historically. Looking at the last 20 Preakness runnings below, one thing is very clear.  This was a VERY SLOW run race. How slow?  Hitting the 1/2 mile marker in 48 3/5 seconds, Oxbow had run one full second slower than the slowest Preakness in the 19 years preceding.
Gary Stevens, aboard Oxbow, had stolen the race.  Or it had been given to him when other speed horses did not push him.
1/4 mile 1/2 mile 3/4 mile 1 mile Finish
1994 Tabasco Cat Off Pace 7 to 2 23 3/5 47 2/5 111 4/5 137 156 2/5
1995 Timber Country Closer 9 to 5 23 1/5 47 1/5 110 4/5 135 2/5 154 2/5
1996 Louis Quatorze Wire 8 to 1 23 46 1/5 109 4/5 134 4/5 153 2/5
1997 Silver Charm Off Pace 3 to 1 22 4/5 46 4/5 110 2/5 135 2/5 154 4/5
1998 Real Quiet Closer 5 to 2 23 1/5 46 2/5 111 135 4/5 154 3/5
1999 Charismatic Closer 8 to 1 22 2/5 45 1/5 110 1/5 135 1/5 155 1/5
2000 Red Bullet Closer 6 to 1 23 1/5 46 3/5 111 1/5 137 156
2001 Point Given Closer 2 to 1 23 4/5 47 1/5 111 4/5 136 2/5 155 2/5
2002 War Emblem Presser 5 to 2 22 4/5 46 110 3/5 136 1/5 156 1/5
2003 Funny Cide Presser 9 to 5 23 1/5 47 111 3/5 136 2/5 155 3/5
2004 Smarty Jones Presser 4 to 5 23 3/5 47 1/5 111 2/5 136 2/5 155 2/5
2005 Afleet Alex Closer 3 to 1 23 46 110 3/5 136 155
2006 Bernardini Off Pace 12 to 1 23 1/5 46 3/5 110 1/5 135 3/5 154 3/5
2007 Curlin Closer 3 to 1 22 4/5 45 3/5 109 4/5 134 3/5 153 2/5
2008** Big Brown Presser 1 to 5 23 2/5 46 4/5 110 4/5 135 3/5 154 4/5
2009 Rachel Alexandra Wire 8 to 5 23 46 3/5 111 135 4/5 155
2010 Lookin At Lucky Off Pace 5 to 2 22 4/5 46 2/5 111 1/5 136 1/5 155 2/5
2011 Shackleford Presser 12 to 1 22 3/5 46 4/5 112 137 1/5 156 2/5
2012 I’ll Have Another Off Pace 3 to 1 23 3/5 47 3/5 111 3/5 136 3/5 155 4/5
2013# Oxbow Wire 15 to 1 23 4/5 48 3/5 113 1/5 138 157 2/5
**Fastest pace
#Slowest pace

At this point, Orb, as well as the other closers had no shot.  As we know, the rest is history.

As those who follow the races regularly know, “Pace Makes The Race”.  If the horses in front are not going fast enough to be tired, then they are not going to stop.

 

The outcome was extremely disappointing for all of us following the Super Screener.

Where did we go wrong?

While the outcome was a difficult one (the Trifecta was a 1,000-1 outcome in a 9-horse race), we should have forseen at least the possibility that there would be not enough pace in the race.

Onward and Upward

With two legs of the Triple Crown behind us, it’s now on to the Belmont.  With both Orb and Oxbow pointing to New York, as well as a formidable cast of challengers, we are anticipating a great opportunity to get back on top.