Preakness 2015 – Inside Track On Hitting The SUPERFECTA

By CandiceCurtis
Updated: May 13, 2015

As we approach the 2015 Preakness Stakes, it is common to hear the decree that the Pimlico dirt track and the Preakness Stakes race in particular favors speed types. While that claim may hold water for the win spot, the results for the remainder of the Superfecta slots couldn’t be more contrary.

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Preakness Super Screener, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of “running styles” and their impact on the outcome of the top four Preakness finishers.

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Preakness Stakes, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. We also noted which of the top four finishers were horses that had not run in the Kentucky Derby also none as New Shooters (✪). In addition, we captured the 2nd Call and 1 Mile factional times of each race.

Click to view full-size version!

SUMMARY OF INSIGHTS:

– Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, Closers/Deep Closers accounted for 25 or 63%, which is very similar to what you’ll find for the Kentucky Derby (70%) over the same 10-year period.

– At least 2 Closers/Deep Closers hit the Superfecta in 8 of the past 10 editions of the Preakness Stakes. Seven of ten races featured 3 closer types hitting the top four positions.

– Only two Pace types have won the Preakness Stakes and the Oxbow victory was produced off one of the most slowly run Preakness Stakes in history.

– Over the past 10 years there have been 10 horses that have hit the Superfecta at odds of 20-1 or higher. 8 of those 10 horses were Closers/Deep Closers.

– The fourth place slot yielded six 20-1+ bombers in the past 10 years.

– Over half of the past 10 Preakness Stakes were won by a Pace/Presser type.

– 30% of the 40 possible finish opportunities were taken by new shooters (had not run in the Kentucky Derby) though only 1 new shooter produced a win, which was Bernardini, and that was the race when the odds-on favorite, Barbaro, suffered his terrible injury just leaving the gate.

– 80% of the 20-1+ bombers that hit the Superfecta were new shooters.

– The vast majority of new shooters that cracked the Superfecta ran their last race at Aqueduct.

For the 2015 Preakness Stakes, the field is packed with presser types and it is doubtful the top contenders will get away with as reasonable of a pace as they carved out in the Kentucky Derby. That being said, the Super Screener is not projecting a suicidal pace by any means and, in fact, the early calculation has the projected pace setting up to be just slightly quicker than par…something close to a 1:11 1/5 and 1:36 1/5 pace.

KEY 2015 PREAKNESS TAKE AWAYS:

– This year’s Superfecta is likely to be dominated by horses that are running back from the Kentucky Derby

– At least one closer will hit the Superfecta and with all the pressers in this year’s edition of the Preakness, there are only a few closers to choose from…and the Super Screener will help you sort that out.

– New shooters do hit the 2nd to 4th place slots of the Superfecta with some regularity and almost always at a big price. There are a lot of quality Kentucky Derby horses to get past this year but it would be wise to find that one new shooter you feel has the best shot at maybe that 4th place finish at huge odds.