Rebels Stakes Day Cashes + Jeff Ruby Steaks – Super Screener
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Rebels Stakes Day Cashes + Jeff Ruby Steaks

Photo by: Coady Photography

Rebel (G2)

This highly anticipated G2 Rebel lived up to it’s pre-race day hype featuring a very flashy win by Magnum Moon that shouted professionalism throughout. He laid out energy in a very balanced way indicating that added distance in his next start will not be a problem. This lightly raced colt is doing everything right and like Justify, just has a great mental maturity for a 3 year-old. This is a very legit Kentucky Derby contender despite having not run a race in 2017.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Magnum Moon prior to the race:

“#4 Magnum Moon is very lightly raced but could be loaded here as he dialed in that last race win and afterward wouldn’t even have blown out a candle.  He tracked a very slow pace but then just dominated this mediocre field and drew away at will. Faces tougher here so he’ll need to improve off that effort to impact but should get the perfect trip to aid his cause.”

Precocious Pletcher-charge has the best shot to upset Solomini on the basis of recency, super sharp works and 2nd two-turn route effort.  Beat no one in his last race but ran and won very professionally from off the pace. Last race BRIS Speed Rating should be higher due to the very slow pace in that race.  Pletcher’s best shot at a Kentucky Derby repeat if Audible doesn’t show up next out.”

Despite finishing 2nd Solomini got what he needed from this race after not having raced in over 100 days. This should set him up well for his final prep race in a month… a race in which just a a solid 2nd or 3rd place will do. Keep in mind, when it comes to the Kentucky Derby 1 ¼ distance, this is the kind of horse that is still coming on at the end. He lays out energy very evenly and can run all day long but he can not have his momentum broken as he is not quick footed but that is his only fault. Otherwise, he’s basically a big freight train that has no stop and he’ll relish the longer distances of the Triple Crown races.

Despite the chalky finish, the Super Screener suggested wagers returned nearly $400.

The Super Screener is rating the G2 Rebel prep as an “A-“.

 

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)

From our historical analysis of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (formerly the Spiral Stakes) it was clear this race is quite kind to horses that come from off the pace. In fact, over the past 10 renewals of this race, only 1 pace horse managed to finish in the Superfecta and it was a fading 3rd place. Hazit, projected to be a pace factor, broke very slow and was never in the race so that left Mugaritz all on his own opening up on the field cutting modest fractions… and despite this perfect trip he got swallowed up in the final critical furlong by 4 other foes. The Super Screener Top Board Hitter, Blended Citizen, emerged as the victor narrowly defeating a fast charging top Screener rated Pony Up. In addition to Blended Citizen, the other horse we recommended keying up and down in vertical wagers was Arawak who finished third at 12-1.  

“#8 Blended Citizen and #12 Arawak are the perfect pair to single up and down in your vertical wagers as they get the desired pace set up and race flow on a track surface that favors these mid-pack closer types.”

The suggested Super Screener Trifecta returned $630.  

The Super Screener rates this Kentucky Derby prep as a D.

Santa Margarita (G1)

The anticipated hot and pressured pace materialized and Mended was super impressive here considering that one dueled throughout but stayed on gamely for 2nd place surrounded by late runners as the rest of the speed collapsed. However, it was Fault that stole the show, making her first run on dirt and just crushing this field in a stylish looking, come-from-behind win.  The East Coast shipper, Bishop’s Pond, was a brief pace factor before folding up at the top of the stretch.

The suggested Super Screener Exacta and Trifecta wagers returned $574.

 

Essex Handicap

This field was reduced from 11 to 7 starters post scratches but the anticipated swift and pressured pace materialized, regardless. Hedge Fund was game dueling throughout losing the lead to Dalmore at the ¾ pole but then came on again and drew away impressively while other front runners were nowhere to be found in the end. Untrapped managed to find more trouble in this race albeit just a minor set back that had no impact on the final results. The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick finished 3rd as the longest price on the board. Dazzling Gem, the Super Screener Vulnerable Favorite, didn’t pick up his feet at any point finishing 2nd to last at 5-2.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the top 3 finishers prior to the race:

“Todd Pletcher’s #2 Hedge Fund will be a part of the pace mix here but he has shown some grit and hopefully he will not be taken to the lead here by Jose Ortiz and can reserve some energy.  He was really moving rapidly forward in his development over the course of those three races post his debut but then was put away last May. His 2018 debut in February at GP was a good rust shaker even though he enjoyed the perfect trip.  He’ll move forward off that effort and jockey Jose Ortiz sticks.”

“#4 Untrapped will get overlooked some here and his odds will probably be higher than 5-1 which would create some needed value for a horse that is much better on a fast track and one that had a deceptively bad trip last out getting shut off late losing all chance. Dangerous!”

“The Super Screener Top Win Pick and Top Long Shot pick, #1 Blueridge Traveler, will be well positioned saving ground throughout sitting just 4 lengths off the wall of speed laying out energy in a very balanced way.  The 1 1/16th miles distance is his wheelhouse distance on a track surface in which he is 3 for 3 in the Trifecta…and in the past 9 races he has only missed the Exacta once. In addition, he is on a steady and progressive form cycle ascent that projects to continue here 4th off the layoff and on the cut back in distance. Last work was super indicating he is holding his top form.  Jockey Channing Hill accounts for all three of his wins including the two on this surface. 4 year-old colt from the top barn is getting good at the right time and offers tremendous value.”

The Super Screener suggested Exacta wagers returned $453 in this compact field.

 

Next weekend, we complete the penultimate Kentucky Derby preps (though next weekend’s races could be a final prep for many).  All eyes turn to Fair Grounds as Bravazo, My Boy Jack and Snapper Sinclair all meet up in the G2 Louisiana Derby with a projected field of 10 combatants and $1,000,000 of purse money on the line. Then on Sunday, there are valuable Kentucky Derby points available for what promises to be a full field of 3 year olds in the G3 Sunland Derby. The undercard at Fair Grounds is loaded with stakes action that we are sure to partake in.   

Until next week, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

 

 

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