“Rich” Sugar Swirl Score + Kentucky Derby Contender Revealed

G3 Sugar Swirl Stakes

Always great when a plan comes together and it certainly did with this race.  It started with the Super Screener accurately predicting that a duel with strong pace pressure would materialize.  Next, our Top Value and Top Win pick, Rich Mommy, sat off that pressured pace as anticipated and then found that path on the outside and won easily at odds of 12-1 advancing once again in her form cycle.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Rich Mommy prior to the race:

“The Super Screener TOP WIN and TOP VALUE pick, #8 Rich Mommy will sit just 3 lengths off the dueling pair in what will be a compact field formation throughout.  This improving filly with plenty of upside will sit the perfect trip in the clear and on the outside.  She is easily clearing conditions and, therefore, while she is taking a step up here in the level of competition she’ll face, she will be up for the challenge as the other mares in the field have had long campaigns or they are past the peak years of their career with more downside than upside opportunity.”

 

The icing on the cake was the fact that the Super Screener Top Long Shot picks, Bodacious Babe and More Than a Party (at outrageous odds of 73-1!) completed the huge Exacta and Trifecta with the odds-on favorite, Dearest, showing some vulnerability off that 6-month layoff completing the Superfecta.

 

“#9 Bodacious Babe is a bit of a risky play as the Super Screener TOP LONG SHOT pick.  Her best races have come at GP and that was the case last winter.  However, her 3 races this spring/summer did not measure up to those previous efforts.  She is now back in the Jane Cibelli barn and on her favorite dirt surface.  That last super work only induces more confidence that the risk/reward proposition on this filly is favorable. Doesn’t hurt that she picks up top rider, Irad Ortiz Jr.  

 

#3 More Than a Party in an interesting pattern horse that submits her best efforts either off a layoff or 2nd race back which is the condition we have here.  She also seems to produce her best efforts on this race surface as well.  Did finish a good 2nd behind our top win pick, #8 Rich Mommy, and will improve off that effort.  7 for 10 in the Exacta at this distance.  Value!”

 

In the end, the suggested Super Screener Exacta and Superfecta wagers produced a return of $2,855.

 

Springboard Mile

This ended up being a very disappointing race from a wagering perspective as it came up chalk/chalk for the Exacta though the $2 payoff of $34 was quite generous considering the short odds of the top two favorites thanks to the 12-horse field (Screener suggested Exacta wager paid $170).  The outside post proved to be no challenge for Greyvitos and Victor Espinoza was able to successfully keep him in the clear throughout avoiding the kickback the horse can’t stand and he went on to win rather easily earning 10 Kentucky Derby points in the process.  Combatant was clearly 2nd best and the rest of the field was far back and made no impact.

 

G3 Tropical Turf

This was a bit of a frustrating race as the results did not surprise at all.  We grouped the winner, Shakimat at 11-1 with the 2nd place finisher Galton at 9-1 and used over and under the trio of Tower of Texas, Blacktype and All Included who finished 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively. The Super Screener considered Shakimat and Galton as solid “under” horses so the suggested wagers didn’t have them together for the Exacta…just couldn’t see Tower of Texas, Blacktype or All Included out of the Exacta.  

 

Screener was correct in landing on Shakhimat from among the speed horses that would “hang on for a piece”.  Also, Galton, was spotted as a “sneaky good type” that could pop a big effort here and he certainly did.

 

“5 Galton is a sneaky good type that is capable of popping a big effort without notice.  His race two back on this turf course and at this distance would win this race. Much better as an “under” player but it would be advisable to cover this one lightly in the win spot as well at a decent price.”    

 

Tower of Texas and Blacktype were both running the fastest late and finished a nose apart at the wire but that pair missed second place by a short neck.  The projected stronger early pace never materialized and left the closers with too much to do in the end…narrowly.

 

Bonapaw Stakes

This race was decimated with 4 scratches that came after we sent out the final edition at 11:30 AM ET on Saturday.  Scratches included 2 of our top 3 ranked picks so the complexion of the race changed, significantly.  The race result then was quite incredulous as the three longest prices on the board finished 1-2-3.  We certainly picked the right race to include in our weekend line up and would have liked to have seen the 12-horse field stay intact.

IMPORTANT!

Just a reminder that there will be no Super Screener for this coming holiday weekend.  Instead, we will publish a special edition for Santa Anita’s opening day, Tuesday, 12/26, featuring a pair of Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes highlighted by the G1 Malibu and G1 La Brea Stakes.  Opening day at Santa Anita is always a fan favorite.  The Super Screener Stakes Weekend will resume a few days later covering the final weekend of racing in 2017.  Let’s close the year on a high note!

 

A very happy Holidays to all and enjoy your time with family, friends and racing.

 

Until next next week, Go Fast and Win!

 

Mike