Stephen Foster Night Trifectas – Super Screener
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Stephen Foster Night Trifectas

Photo by Mary M. Meek/Eclipse Sportswire

G1 Stephen Foster

The highlight of the evening was the highly anticipated return of Super Screener favorite, Gun Runner, to his 2017 campaign on the way to the Breeders’ Cup Classic and with a win here he is now “in” that race.  He was last seen finishing a solid 2nd behind the world’s number one ranked horse, Arrogate, the Dubai World Cup back in late March. Right now, Gun Runner is the second ranked horse in the US and 4th top horse world wide.  Last night’s performance may even nudge him up another spot.

 

There were no surprises with this race as the Super Screener top 3 ranked horses comprised the Trifecta.  Breaking Lucky, the top value play, did finish 3rd at odds of 10-1, but the night belonged to Gun Runner, a horse the Super Screener identified as a “rising star” and “top Kentucky Derby” contender just before the running of the Louisiana Derby last year.  

 

“The headliner for this year’s edition of the Grade 1 Stephen Foster is none other than the ultra consistent and Super Screener favorite since before the Kentucky Derby, #3 Gun Runner.  He put in a valiant effort in the Dubai World Cup finishing just over 2 lengths behind the number one horse in the world, Arrogate. He has a summer campaign charted out that culminates into a bid to take down the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  This marks the launch of that campaign which will then likely take him to Saratoga next. #3 Gun Runner has 3 wins in 5 starts on this track and he runs well fresh while ideally suited to this 1 1/8 mile distance.  Florent Geroux is likely to take him off of the pace setters #1 Bird Song and #8 Stanford to sit comfortably in 3rd about two lengths back early on before making first move on the early leaders.  If he ends up battling with #1 Bird Song and #8 Stanford, that pair will fade into submission and #3 Gun Runner will have to hold off all late comers.  Invincible?..no…out of the Exacta?… Screener just can’t see it.”

 

G2 Fleur de Lis

In this “win and you’re in” Breeders’ Cup race, trainer Dallas Steward decided to run Forever Unbridled here rather than in the Chicago Handicap sprint stakes next week.  The strategy paid off as Forever Unbridled towered over this field on paper and the only question mark was how would she do off the layoff since November.  She now has a spot in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff gate and will try to improve upon her third place finish in that race last year.

 

Trainer Bill Mott’s Apologynotaccepted set the modest pace and hung on gamely for 2nd.  A key pattern the Super Screener has identified with Bill Mott horses is that his more lightly raced types have a way of jumping up big in Graded Stakes races when on paper they look 2nd tier or even overmatched.  For example, in the original rankings, the Super Screener had this mare ranked 2nd to last but based on this Bill Mott screening criteria she was moved up 4 positions in the rankings…that was clearly not enough and duly noted.

 

G3 Wise Dan

The Super Screener really narrowed in on Conquest Panthera and Kasaqui as the top horses of focus with Kasaqui our top value play.  Neither horse disappointed and nearly finished 1-2 but #4 Chocolate Ride broke up that Exacta party holding on resolutely for 2nd place which we instructed to cover for with this advice:

 

“Cover that pair (Security Risk and Chocolate Ride) in the place spot in Exotics in the event they back this field up to a crawl early on in trying to “steal” the race and hold on for a piece.”

 

Kasaqui finally got that pace needed and proved superior over the more locally based players including the favorite Pleuven.  Here’s what the Super Screener said about the top value choice.

Blofeld was the top long shot bomber pick and he finished a game 5th defeating both Pleuven and Thatcher Street at odds of 20-1.  Look for this one to now stay on turf in his come back try in search of returning to prior stellar form.

The suggested Trifecta wager paid pretty good considering the slim odds of the top three finishers.

 

G3 Regret

This was the most anticipated race of the evening for the Super Screener as it had the promise of actually producing some high value payoffs.  But, alas, as it was for the prior three races, this one came up chalky in the end.  

Sweeping Paddy was one of our “A” horses and that one looked super in a break out performance easily disposing of her competition as the draw-away winner and in the process scoring that predicted new lifetime top.

Proctor’s Ledge was the Super Screener top board hitter candidate and that one rose to the occasion finishing a very game and clear second place.

Fizzy Friday was the top Super Screener long shot pick and that one did manage to finish a fast closing 5th.  Had we known Summer Luck would go off at 18-1 we would have made that one our top long shot pick as it was ranked just above Fizzy Friday in our rankings.  The Superfecta was comprised of members from our top 6 ranked horses…always a goal of the Super Screener.  

 

After two weekends filled with G1 and G2 stakes action, the spotlight now turns to Thistledown and Laurel Park with the former track hosting the $500,000 G3 Ohio Derby featuring Kentucky Derby runners Girvin and Irap.  Of course, Churchill Downs, Belmont Park and Santa Anita will all feature some G3 stakes fare which usually means larger and more competitive fields featuring more value.

 

Until next weekend…Go fast and win!

 

Mike

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One Comment

  1. john

    June 19, 2017 at 3:24 pm

    sorry to say I did not hit this week. that happens. I did not play the foster. that came up as a no value no play for me. i’m not a big bettor but do get many longshots. so when I look at the super screener your first 4 picks are the key to how I play. in the other 3 I loved sweeping paddy who was on my own list of horses.. win was ok but missed ex. had your 12 11 and 9. in 2nd slot. you cannot use every horse who might hit the board and then claim you had it! I thought best shot was the wise dan . choclate ride for me was a toss. got 1st @3rd. in the fleur still looking for romantic vision. move on now to this week> and make better plays. i’ll it out.