Still Cashing After the Breeders’ Cup! – Super Screener
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Still Cashing After the Breeders’ Cup!

Ryan Lasek / Eclipse Sportwire

G2 Commonwealth Turf

commonwealth-turf-chart-results-2016

Holy crap!  If you were to just box the top three ranked Super Screener horses in Exacta’s and Trifecta’s you would have had a potential huge score.  And, several of you wrote in to say you connected big time on this race which is fantastic!

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Our top long shot pick #4 Hay Dakota lit up the board winning this by a narrow neck over our top win pick #8 Bondurant paying $60.20 for the upset victory.  As they were coming down the stretch we were actually rooting for #8 Bondurant to over take #4 Hay Dakota so that a couple of those suggested Trifecta wagers could cash, but any time we can get our top three picks home in the Trifecta, we won’t complain too much and, more importantly, glad a bunch of you scored in this race.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the top three finishers:

#4 Hay Dakota has shocker power written all over him and is the Super Screener long shot bomber pick for this race.  Has moved forward in each of his last 6 starts. Looked better than #7 One Mean Man in the Mystic Lake Derby at Canterbury, yet that rival is 3-1 in the Morning Line.  Fits among these and getting good at the right time.   TOP LONG SHOT Ships in from Chicago and has improved in each of his last 6 starts culminating into a sharp win on the Hawthorn lawn.  Could shock some here with another top effort and huge odds.  Use with confidence.

#8 Bondurant looks tough here 3rd off the very long layoff and coming off a sharp allowance win.  Has more upside in both form cycle and against these rivals.  Will not sit way back and more likely to see him 3rd or 4th in the early going.  Has a win in his lone try on the CD turf. Lightly raced lawn mower with a decidedly late energy distribution profile.  Makes just his 3rd start off the over 9-month layoff.  Has encountered super fast pace set ups in all route starts…wont get that today but top player.

#6 Scholar Athlete, out of the always tough Graham Motion barn, will inherit the lead in a field void of need-to-lead types. Has proven dangerous when he gets loose on the lead but very tough to wire them on this turf course.  Almost certain to hang on for a piece of the Superfecta, however. Does his best on the front and may get the lone and easy lead against these. That Laurel race was huge and good to see the gelding got a break off that lifetime top.  Sharp barn with layoff turf routers. Could hang on.

G3 Discovery

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The race composition of this race changed with a couple of late scratches which made #4 Sticksstatelydude a more convicted pace-controlling top pick…and that’s what happened when this colt seized the lone lead and took them gate to wire at solid odds of 6-1 fighting off Neolithic gallantly down stretch.  Here’s what we said about Sticksstatelydude:

“(Sticksstatelydude) Projects to outrun his odds creating value. Pace leader now with scratch of Hot Seat.   Toss troubled Smarty Jones.  Really woke up after June race and working well up to this off the layoff.  Dangerous win threat with easier pace.”

The change in the pace set up only helped our top long shot pick #8 Neolithic who was utterly dismissed by the uninformed going off at over 22-1.  This Pletcher-trained colt added blinkers and we knew he would be more forwardly placed and working a great form cycle ascent signaling a big effort. He stalked the winner throughout…engaged him in a duel down the stretch but just couldn’t out game that rival in the end.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Neolithic:

“#8 Neolithic intrigues us the most and is the Super Screener top long shot pick.  Doubtful we’ll get 15-1 on this Pletcher-trained colt but we will get value.  Broke his maiden on the second try and then went on the shelf for 8 months.  Upon his return in August, he ran a big one producing a lifetime top at Saratoga sprinting.  Regressed off that one next out but jumped up again in his last effort at Belmont going the 1-turn mile.  Projects to move forward in a big way here and has so much more upside than most others in this field.  Liking the addition of blinkers here and the move back to 2 turns.

TOP LONG SHOT Lightly-raced Pletcher charge is making only his 4th start of 2016.  Will move up going 2 turns.  Regressed off that top in August but back on an ideal form cycle pattern, expect a big move forward here at a price.”

The Super Screener was rewarded for accurate screening with a nice $12 Exacta suggested wager win of $1,260!

#3 Gift Box and #5 Governor Malibu were big disappointments showing no energy when their pilots said “go”.

 

G3 Red Smith

The top board hitter pick, #9 Bigger Picture did sit off the pace setters as projected and prevailed in the end. The winner should have been Danish Dynaformer, however, as without the bit of trouble at the start and then going 7+ wide he would have been right there.  We’ll make note of that trip as this horse has managed to find a way to secure tough trips in his last several outings.

Wake Forest ran okay for 3rd but looks like he could use a break.  Messi does as well as that flop at Santa Anita and then the no show in this one (albeit lacking room in the stretch) is indicating a tired horse which is something to watch for this time of year.

Never had Bigger Picture on top in the suggested wagers.  Flip the order of the top two then a nice Exacta cashes.  Lesson learned here is we got too locked into the top three ranked horses for win without covering for Bigger Picture to finished better than 2nd.  Here’s what the Super Screener said about Bigger Picture:

“(Bigger Picture) Very consistent sort finishing in the Exacta 9 of 15 times.  Gets a pace advantage in that he secures ideal position sitting just off a dueling pair.  Perfect distance and in top form right now.  Strong board hitter pick.”

Just one weekend to go before Thanksgiving and the racing action continues.  Get ready for a parade of 2 year-old races certain to feature those we’ll see in the Kentucky Derby gate.

So, until next weekend…Go Fast and Win!

Mike

One Comment

  1. Don Sherret

    November 15, 2016 at 1:35 pm

    I hit the G3 Discovery for half of the trifecta– cashed for $805.