Super Saturday 2016 Results – Big Hits Pre-BC!
- Updated: October 10, 2016
Samantha Bussanich/Eclipse Sportswire
WINNERS
Belmont Turf Sprint
With the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational, we finally arrived at our first full field stakes race on the day. Along with Disco Partner, Pure Sensation was our “A” horse and cited as one of the top turf sprinters in the nation right now and under the training care of crafty, Christophe Clement. While the 5 year-old gelding did sit off the dueling pair of Power Alert and Pool Winner, he soon engaged in that battle at the half-mile marker negotiating the swift fractions and narrowly prevailed at the end overtaking Power Alert and holding off the late charging Green Mask (after a troubled start) and Disco Partner.
(Pure Sensation) Rates top when calculating pace and energy reserve. Pure sprinter that much prefers 5 to 5.5 furlongs. Pool Winner will give him everything he can handle early tapping energy reserve. Top turf sprinter is tough here.
While Pure Sensation did prevail in the end here and, surprisingly, Power Alert regained his old form under the piloting of jockey Mike Smith proving they could handle the 6-furlong distance under tough pace conditions. Negotiating the hillside turf course at Santa Anita, however, is another story. From this race both Green Mask and Disco Partner would move up on that switch as the pace will be swifter and the track profile favors those coming from off the pace. And, because they finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, this pair will offer more value come the first Saturday in November.
It was the first playable stakes race of the day and despite the surprise 2nd place finish by Power Alert, the Super Screener suggested Trifecta wagers covered him in the place spot and hit for $468.
G2 TCA Stakes
After Belmont Park got the Saturday Graded Stakes action rolling, we switched for a moment to Keeneland to take in the ever-important Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint prep, the G2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes. The top three finishers were the expected top three contenders in the race. As projected, Stonetastic set the swift fractions and, surprisingly, got the lone lead but despite this clear advantage, the steadily improving Irish Jasper was just too good in the end scooting up the rail to overtake Stonetastic in the waning yards. Our top choice, Bendable ran a very good race doing all the pressing of Stonetastic and nearly catching her at the wire and did so post the wire. She’ll move forward off that race and comes home back to her home track in great shape.
(Irish Jasper) Sneaky good Chad Brown win machine is also improving big time at the right time. Anything close to her last…wins this. Will sit in the back, let the speed duel take hold and then fly fastest of all late. Great last work adds confidence
CA shipper (Bendable) from the Mandella barn might get dismissed some but he is getting really good at the right time. Form cycle analysis indicates he is sitting on a lifetime top. That last work was sensational. Primed to beat Stonetastic.
Our top bomber pick #7 I’m a Looker ran best of all the long shots closing for a sharp looking 4th taking advantage of the swift fractions. If she goes on to run in the BC Filly and Mare Sprint, she’ll play the role of a top long shot bomber pick again.
Of the rest of the field this filly (I’m a Looker) has a good look about her. Was improving in every race until hitting the mud in the Open Mind…ignore that one. Note also, that last KEE effort was super strong. Could catch the Exacta…include.
Now despite the chalky outcome, the Super Screener suggested wagers did return over $600 as we hit the $1 Trifecta 14 times and tabbed the Exacta as well.
G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
This important two-turn prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile came up stronger than the G1 Champagne Stakes run at Belmont Park earlier in the day. Classic Empire was the clear win choice for the Super Screener and he did not disappointment winning with relative ease. Lookin At Lee looked impressive closing with a furry for a game 2nd place finish. He was just too far back leaving out of that 12 post to have done any better.
Our top long shot bomber in the race, Wild Shot, took the lead in the race and held on so gamely for third at eye-popping odds of 42-1!
TOP LONG SHOT (Wild Shot) A little sneaky in that he as the perfect energy distribution profile for the stretch out and supporting route breeding.
Now the best insight from all the Stakes races run this weekend came out of this race. Watch the replay of this race and keep an eye on #9 No Dozing. What a horrible trip he endured with having to check at the start losing valuable position and several lengths to the field and then going 5 wide into the first turn and 3 wide into the second turn losing even more ground especially around the tight turns of Keeneland. If connections decide to move forward with No Dozing, the Super Screener has already tabbed him as our dark horse for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Thanks to our top long shot bomber, Wild Shot, hanging on for third our suggested wagers for this race clicked on the $1 Trifecta yielding a pay off of nearly $900.
OTHER STAKES RESULTS
G1 Frizette
The huge weekend of Breeders’ Cup stakes prep action kicked off with the G1 Frizette featuring a modest field of 6 East Coast-based 2 year-old fillies. Not a lot of surprises here as the result was expected to come up pretty chalky. Our top value pick Libby’s Tail nearly pulled off the victory leading the field past every poll at a solid pace before yielding to Yellow Agate at the wire.
(Libby’s Tail) Will surprise some here after two really bad trips. Retains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. who benefits with a move to the inside. Was much better than her debut indicates as she covered a ton of extra ground that day.
There was some question about Yellow Agate’s ability to go the mile distance. The mile distance at Belmont Park is just one turn so you can think of it as a longer sprint. Yellow Agate proved she can go the route distance after a perfect trip stalking the pace from the outside. Question remains if in heading to Santa Anita she’ll be ready to negotiate two turns for the first time against arguably better West Coast competition.
G1 Kelso
The G1 Kelso stakes came up super compact and unplayable. As the Super Screener anticipated, with virtually no other early energy distribution types in the field, the Super Screener top choice, and lone speed, Anchor Down, took control of the pace at the start and never looked back.
Pletcher holds a strong hand in this scratch-reduced field of 5 and this horse, while maybe not the best horse in the field, (Anchor Down) will control the pace which is always dangerous in these compact Grade 1 races. Should be able to throttle this field down to a crawl and then muster every reserve he has to hold off all late challengers.
Tamarkuz had every chance to over take his rival as he stalked Anchor Down throughout but could not muster the extra kick in the end. It was a useful prep for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile for the top pair but nothing really notable in the end.
G1 Flower Bowl
The Grade 1 stakes action continued with rising anticipation to see if Lady Eli could return to her former glory second off the long layoff induced after battling life-threatening health issues that took her off the track for over a year. Well, as the top Super Screener choice she did not disappoint her backers in what turned out to be a much better than it looked victory. We projected that in this very compact field devoid of speed, Sentiero Italia would seize command early and could potentially hold on for the upset:
Watch out…(Sentiero Italia) is controlling speed in here which makes her dangerous even at this more demanding distance. Ran pretty close to that demanding pace last out and managed to hold on gamely for 3rd. A tall order against the likes of these. Win is not impossible but even more certain of a board-hitting performance.
Sentiero Italia was very comfortable alone on the lead setting easy fractions which is why she had so much energy left in the stretch run to hold off Sea Calisi who had too much work to do given the soft pace. Lady Eli, however, showed why she is one of the top turf fillies in the world overtaking Sentiero Italia and then drawing away at the wire. Super prep and she is going to come into the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf razor sharp as a result.
Lady Eli lost nothing in defeat last out against others in this field as she was making her 2016 debut after overcoming some life-threatening health issues. That last race had to do her a lot of good and prior to going on the shelf, she was 3 for 3 on this turf course and she will relish the distance. Look for a big, big effort today
G1 Champagne
It was the 2 year-old colts turn now to do battle in the crucial Breeders’ Cup Juvenile prep, the G1 Champagne Stakes. Syndergaard was one of the few that got a clean break and then proceeded to set swift fractions taking then nearly from start to wire on what turned out to be a very tight and glib Belmont dirt surface on Saturday. He drifted badly nearing the wire clearly tiring but looks very promising on a move now to two turns.
Practical Joke did not have the best of starts but recovered quickly and took advantage of the pace duel in front of him to close into that swift pace and prevail in the end.
(Practical Joke) The better of the strong Chad Brown pair ran a deceptively strong G1 Hopeful winning that one having to overcome a slow pace. Gets more pace today and sits mid-pack eye balling those that are forwardly placed. Will really relish the extra ground today and becomes the top foe to #6 Big Gray Rocket.
Big Gray Rocket disappointed coming up empty big time. No excuses and goes back home to the Baffert barn to regroup.
G1 First Lady
Switching back to Keeneland, the racing world watched with great interest to see if the immortal Tepin could pull off her 9th straight win. However, a dismissed outsider, Photo Call, absolutely freaked and the crafty turf rider, Kent Desormeaux decided to take him out to a commanding open lengths lead drawing away at one point by 12 lengths before Tepin started really eating into that margin with every stride. Tip of the cap to the connections of Photo Call on pulling off a risky strategy that worked on a turf course favoring speed all day. However, it is very unlikely that stunt can be repeated in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf or the B C Mile with the same results being achieved.
Super Screener did not see that one coming…nor did anyone else as Photo Call won at nearly 30-1.
G1 SA Sprint Championship
We took a quick trip to the West Coast to watch Lord Nelson do what was anticipated…easily handle his rivals on the way to victory stamping himself as a prime favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.
(Lord Nelson) Just overwhelms his foes here as he is clearly head and shoulders above the rest. Easy winner/no value.
Not much else to report here other than the Super Screener did select All Run as the solid second choice and he completed the Exacta at odds of 23-1 after setting breath-taking fractions and solidly holding off the rest of his foes.
G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup
The Jockey Club Gold Cup was another 5-horse field and not a playable race from a wagering perspective. Effinex was expected to control the pace in this abbreviated field but Protonico spoiled those plans taking up the lead early. So while that pair dueled throughout, Hoppertunity bided his time, enjoying the sweeping turns that play well into this big horse’s long striding, grinding running style. He faced much easier and finally broke through for that elusive win. This prep in the end will have little impact on the outcome of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Connections of Hoppertunity will be hoping for a brutal, energy-zapping duel between California Chrome and Arrogate to have any shot on a track surface that does not play into his preferences given the tight turns and lack of depth to the dirt track.
G1 Shadwell Turf Mile
What a salty edition of the Shadwell Turf Mile and clearly the best of the US Breeders’ Cup Mile preps. Our second choice in the field of 11 was the filly #7 Miss Temple City who finally avoided finding trouble beat the boys and some top G1 types to boot.
(Miss Temple City) Filly clocked a sharp group of boys in the G1 Makers Mark Mile here last Spring. Experienced tough trouble in her last three starts. Caught in a wicked pace last out but held on gamely for 5th. Going to get value here. Strong play.
Now, it was clear that Ironicus ran the best race of all having been on the shelf since early June. This top effort really sets him up for a tremendously strong effort in the Breeders’ Cup Mile coming in now second off the long layoff.
(Ironicus) Dangerously good as is 11 for 13 in the Exacta. Lightly raced this year with only two starts at Belmont going longer. Trainer Shug McGaughey is sneaky good with these long layoff types. Possesses a deadly late kick. A top contender.
The top two finishers of the G1 Arlington Million, Modialiste and Kasaqui finished 4th and 5th, respectively and deserve a look if they move on to the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
Well, with just over 3 weeks to go, we have one final weekend of Breeders’ Cup prep action with the spotlight remaining on Keeneland, but also shared with our neighbors to the North at Woodbine covering the key Grade 1 races that include the Queen Elizabeth II, the G1 E.P, Taylor and G1 Pattison Canadian. So, plenty of action left as we get that much closer to two of the best days in racing.
Until next weekend…Go Fast and Win!
Mike
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