Blue Grass Stakes Post Race Analysis
- Updated: April 3, 2015
SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS
G1 Blue Grass Stakes
#5 Carpe Diem will complete his Kentucky Derby preparation with this his second start off the layoff after handing it to an overmatched group of rivals in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He has the qualifying points he needs to make the gate on the first Saturday in May so connections are looking for a nice move forward off that 2015 debut race. He should have no excuses in this race as he’ll find a comfortable position stalking #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho.
The latter rival tossed a stinker in the #1 Super Screener rated prep to date, the G2 San Felipe Stakes, but he had significant trouble right from the outset. He got rattled at the gate and was slammed by a rival around the first turn resulted in lacerations to his forelegs. That being said, he would have to submit a significant turnaround effort today to make an impact here. One advantage he’ll have is the controlling pace in a compact field. And, if the track comes up off in any way, all the better for #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho.
#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho is currently ranked 27th and #5 Carpe Diem sits at #4 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby rankings. http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders
#3 Pepper Roani could be a surprise player as he makes the switch from Polytrack to dirt after that useful 2nd place finish in the John Battaglia Stakes at Turfway Park. This is a very different horse with addition of blinkers two back. Watch for better-than-his-odds-suggest outcome today.
If the pace comes up swifter than we are projecting (and we are projecting a below par pace), give #6 Frammento a look underneath in your exotics. The price will be right and his form cycle suggests that he’ll be making a really nice move forward today to run back to something close to his 12/17 effort.
The Super Screener will favor horses with at least one start off a layoff, a first or second place finish in a graded stakes race, shippers from Florida or California, a decent foundation with an ascending form cycle, a presser energy distribution profile and sharp works.
Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:
WIN CONTENDERS
#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho 3-1
#5 Carpe Diem 2-5
BOARD HITTERS
#3 Pepper Roani 10-1
#6 Frammento 15-1
Let’s break down the G1 Blue Grass Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:
Keeneland– G1 Blue Grass Stakes – 1 1/8 Miles
Field Size = 8
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1
Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4
Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 6
BRIS Pace Par: First Call = 94; Second Call = 103; Final = 103
Projected Pace: First Call = 90; Second Call = 99; Final = 104
Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced
Morning Line Favorite: Carpe Diem (CURRENT HRN RANKING: #4)
Super Screener Top Three Picks: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Carpe Diem, Pepper Roani
Hit-the-Board Bomber: Pepper Roani and Frammento
SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+
Notes: Carpe Diem would be expected to manhandle this field which has come up fairly weak, hence, the B+ Super Screener quality rating. Track conditions should play a significant role in the outcome favoring those with an early turn of foot such as Ocho Ocho Ocho.
POST RACE RECAP:
Carpe Diem moved another step forward in his pursuit of a victory in the Kentucky Derby win. His Blue Grass Stakes effort was exactly what you want to see in a Derby contender in that he progressed off his last start but still has plenty in the tank for a good run on the first Saturday in May. He’ll need every bit of that tank as some of the top contenders appear to be significantly better at this stage. The Super Screener Prep Quality score for the Blue Grass Stakes remains a B+ and was a notch or two below the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes.
CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/KEE040415USA10.pdf
WINNER: Carpe Diem
BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 94; 2nd Call = 103; Final = 103
BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 90; 2nd Call = 99; Final = 104
BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 89; 2nd Call = 100; Final = 102
TRACK BIAS: None
TOUGH TRIP: None
IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: None
SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+
SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+
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