Rebel Post Race Analysis
- Updated: March 13, 2015
SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS
G2 Rebel Stakes
This marks the 2015 debut of Bob Baffert’s precocious #4 American Pharoah, a colt he considers to be his best Kentucky Derby prospect since Real Quiet and Point Given. He has not raced since last September when he was last seen dominating a quality Grade 1 field that included the likes of Texas Red and Calculator. After that race he suffered a suspensory-related injury in a workout on October 26th leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile which knocked him out of that race and put him on the sidelines until he resumed training just last month. He’ll be playing some catch up now but this is a quality animal and if he is sound, it won’t take long to resume his role as a top Kentucky Derby contender. His works and the projected soft pace in the Rebel give every indication he is ready to run a big one off the shelf. Currently, #4 American Pharoah is ranked #8 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders.
#2 Madefromlucky out of the Todd Pletcher barn has a recency advantage over #4 American Pharoah and he is rolling back in distance today after that sharp victory at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/8 miles. He has improved in each of his past three starts and could move forward again today. If #4 American Pharoah comes up short in his debut, this appears to be the only other threat for the win spot.
#6 Paid Admission is the Super Screener dark horse that has a great shot to hit the bottom of the Exacta a great price. He has moved forward in each of his last three starts and he looks to continue to improve today.
Keep in mind that #1 The Truth Or Else and #5 Bold Conquest were both aided by a closer bias that was firmly in play when the Southwest Stakes was run on the off going at Oaklawn Park. The Super Screener will be discounting the chances of these two colts though #5 Bold Conquest it favored by the Super Screener over #1 The Truth or Else.
#4 American Pharoah will dictate and control the pace is this one which makes him extra dangerous. He’ll be able to throttle it down early unless #2 Madefromlucky goes out and applies some pressure. Either way, it will be these two leading the way at the top of the stretch.
The Super Screener will favor horses with two-turn dirt route experience, early-to-mid energy distribution profiles, shippers from top barns, favorable progressions in form cycle and significant pace advantage.
Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:
WIN CONTENDERS
#4 American Pharoah 2-5
#2 Madefromlucky 4-1
BOARD HITTERS
#6 Paid Admission 20-1
#5 Bold Conquest 15-1
Let’s break down the G2 Rebel Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:
Oaklawn Park – G2 Rebel – 1 1/16 Miles
Field Size = 7
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 1
Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 3
Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 3
BRIS Pace Par: First Call = 92; Second Call = 100; Final = 100
Projected Pace: First Call = 89; Second Call = 97; Final = 105
Energy Distribution Profile of Field: American Pharoah is the lone early energy profile horse
Morning Line Favorite: American Pharoah (CURRENT HRN RANKING: 8)
Super Screener Top Three Picks: American Pharoah, Madefromlucky, Paid Admission
Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: Paid Admission
SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = B+
Notes: Lopsided field in that American Pharoah just towers over the rest but a good debut race to shake off the rust and get some racing conditioning. It will be interesting to see if Madefromlucky can leverage his recency and conditioning advantage to at least keep this one close.
POST RACE RECAP
American Pharoah did not disappoint as the odds on favorite. The race unfolded as anticipated with American Pharoah dictating and controlling the dawdling pace and then, under just a hand ride, he pulled away with authority as he lengthened his stride throughout the stretch run. He beat nothing but this individual performance off the long layoff was truly special. A BRIS Late Pace of 109 tells you he has plenty in reserve and will be a beast in his final prep Kentucky Derby prep race. This field was so weak, however, we have to downgrade the prep to a B though American Pharoah’s performance was an A.
CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/OP031415USA10.pdf
WINNER: American Pharoah
BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 92; 2nd Call = 100; Final = 100
BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 89; 2nd Call = 97: Final = 105
BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 82 ; 2nd Call = 85; Final = 99
TRACK BIAS: None
TOUGH TRIP: Tizwonderfulcreek hopped at the start and lost all chance. Bold Conquest took up sharply off the heals of an erratic Paid Admission going into the first turn.
IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: American Pharaoh
SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: B+
SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: B
