Spiral Stakes Post Race Analysis

SUPER SCREENING THE KENTUCKY DERBY PREPS
G3 Spiral Stakes

After blowing away nine other rivals in the John Battaglia Stakes on the Turfway Polytrack, Todd Pletcher’s charge #1 Royal Sun, is back to try and take down some serious Kentucky Derby qualifier points. No other effort comes close to the numbers this horse put up in that John Battaglia Stakes. Was it blinkers for the first time? The switch to Polytrack? Will we witness a “pop and drop” outcome in the Spiral Stakes? Certainly deserves to be considered but the Super Screener will be knocking him a bit on that 22 point BRIS Speed Rating figure differential between his last two races and the poor work that followed his big win. #11 Meta Boss will be the co-favorite off the El Camino Real stakes win. With an off-the-pace win at the 1 1/8 miles distance, this colt has an advantage over most of the field. Currently #11 Metaboss is ranked #15 on the 2015 Horse Racing Nation Derby rankings http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders. That being said, the Super Screener will be favoring the third place finisher in the El Camino Real stakes, #9 Conquest Typhoon to turn the tables on #11 Metaboss on a strong move forward second off the layoff.

The top Super Screener-rated horse will be #5 Another Lemon Drop, the 2nd place finisher in a turf race at Fair Grounds. He broke his maiden in his second career start going today’s distance on the turf. Another move forward is anticipated today for this colt that sits a bit under the radar. West Coast-based jock, Drayden Van Dyke flies in to ride this interesting contender.

The Super Screener bomber pick in this race will be #10 Firespike. This Michael Maker trainee was absolutely drubbed in a very troubled John Battaglia stakes race. Will come back today at huge odds to finish in the top half of the field with an excellent shot to catch the bottom of either the Trifecta or Superfecta.

The Super Screener will favor horses with 1 1/8 miles turf or synthetic experience, mid to late energy distribution profiles, experience on the local surface, favorable progressions in form cycle and significant pace advantage.

Rating the field, we come up with the following Super Screener assessment:

WIN CONTENDERS

#5 Another Lemon Drop 6-1
#1 Royal Son 2-1

BOARD HITTERS

#9 Conquest Typhoon 5-1
#4 Wireless Future 15-1
#11 Metaboss 4-1

Let’s break down the G3 Spiral Stakes and assess the quality of this Derby Prep race:

Turfway Park – G3 Spiral Stakes – 1 1/8 Miles
Field Size = 12
Number of Graded Stakes Winners: 2
Number of Graded Stakes Placed: 4
Number of Graded Stakes Starters: 7
BRIS Pace Par: First Call = 91; Second Call = 97; Final = 97
Projected Pace: First Call = 93; Second Call = 96; Final = 98
Energy Distribution Profile of Field: Very balanced but favoring off the pace types
Morning Line Favorite: Royal Son (CURRENT HRN RANKING: Not Rated)
Super Screener Top Three Picks: Another Lemon Drop, Royal Son, Conquest Typhoon
Hit-the-Board Bomber Pick: Firespike

SUPER SCREENER QUALITY RATING = D+

Notes: Let’s face it, there are really no serious Kentucky Derby contenders in this prep race filled with horses that prefer turf or synthetic surfaces. We will be watching Royal Son to see if that last race was fluky or, if with added blinkers or move to synthetics, marked the start of sustainable improvement in this colt. All the speed is on the inside so there should be an orderly run to the first turn but also a pressured pace.

POST RACE RECAP:

Dubai Sky submitted a performance nearly identical to that of Firing Line but the difference in the winning margin was 12 lengths.  That makes Dubai Sky another interesting dark horse for the Kentucky Derby in that he distributed his energy more in line with what has historically been a more ideal profile.  He’ll be in the gate on the first Saturday in May and could be close to 20-1.  It will be interesting to see where he rates in the final Super Screener analysis.  This prep moves up a from an initial Super Screener quality rating of D+ to a decent C score.

CHART: http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/TP032115USA11.pdf

WINNER: Dubai Sky
BRIS PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 91; 2nd Call = 97; Final = 97
BRIS PROJECTED PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = 93; 2nd Call = 96: Final = 98
BRIS ACTUAL PACE/FINAL PARS: 1st Call = ; 2nd Call = ; Final =
TRACK BIAS: None
TOUGH TRIP: None
IMPRESSIVE EFFORT: Dubai Sky
SUPER SCREENER PRE-RACE QUALITY RATING: D+
SUPER SCREENER POST-RACE QUALITY RATING: C

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