Weekend Recap – August 6 2016
- Updated: August 9, 2016
Bob Mayberger/Eclipse Sportswire
De La Rose Stakes – Saratoga
We were very bullish on our #1 win contender, Lady Lara, and she did not disappoint, winning easily enough against softer competition.
“Lady Lara will find much easier competition here. Clearly does her best at Belmont but the lone Saratoga try was respectable. Will sit a perfect position off the projected swift and pressured pace. Strong win contender.”
Stormy Victoria also ran one heck of a race finishing 2 nd as our third choice in the field…
“Sharp Clement filly overcame the soft pace last out sweeping the field on the outside to prevail. Gets a much better pace set up as she gives two turns a try. Picks up Ortiz Jr… very dangerous win contender.”
Excilly and Bitty Kitty disappointed as our top long shot horses…however, watch the replay of this race and note that #7 Excilly was making a great move down the stretch on the outside looking certain to hit the Superfecta but then the jockey’s saddle slipped forward and he lost all control of the horse and the momentum causing Leparoux to actually pull up on the filly. This becomes a big horse to watch if they keep this one racing in the US.
We did finish out the day with Lady Lara on top and hitting the Exacta and Trifecta.
G1 Test Stakes
I still look at this chart and say “no way”. I even scanned other handicapper’s recommendations for this race this morning just to see if there was something we missed, and no one even mentioned this Paola Queen in their top 3… hence the 55-1 odds in a field of 7. Clearly this was the case of a pace breakdown based on the very pressured pace we predicted. That is why we were so high on the long shot Malibu Stacy, who scratched from the race Saturday morning. Like Lightstream, our top win choice that finished second, Malibu Stacy would be sitting that perfect trip behind all that pressure-packed speed and then would be passing tired pace setters late, (#4 Malibu Stacy and #5 Lightstream project to get the perfect trips behind the speed.”) but it was the unlikely, completely ignored Paola Queen that ran the “least slow” in the end to deny Lightstream the victory.
No doubt that Off the Tracks ran the best race here, having been right at the forefront of the embattled early pace but managing to hold on tenaciously for a much better-than- it looked 3rd place finish.
West Virginia Derby
Cupid, a top rated win choice, proved best in a field of overmatched 2nd and 3rd tier rivals. He’ll probably get a bit of a break now after all that shipping back and forth, winning the Indiana Derby and now the West Virginia Derby in the process.
It was chaos underneath, which is a good handicapping lesson when it comes to the secondary class of 3-year-old runners. Not good enough for the Triple Crown (the big leagues), but talented enough to compete at the minor league stakes level. At that point, little separates these horses from one another and spreading more in the exotics would be the way to go.
Given the modest pace, it wasn’t a surprise that Suddenbreakingnews didn’t hit the Trifecta, but that come back effort was really dull. Adventist was a puzzling no-show after all indications pointed to that one sitting on a big race with the perfect pace set up.
G1 Whitney
We decided not to feature this race as a wagering opportunity knowing it was projecting to come up too chalky. As we predicted in our race commentary, Frosted won with relative ease and our top value pick, Comfort, ran a game second and is the horse to watch as we head into the Fall racing. He moved forward again in his form cycle and he’s a rapidly improving, lightly raced 4-year-old that is coming into his own at the right time.
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