Winter Stakes At FG, GP – RESULTS! – Super Screener
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Winter Stakes At FG, GP – RESULTS!

Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire

El Prado Stakes (GP)

Heart to Heart took command early as Songsational was taken off the pace and the former foe was left to dueling with Security Risk and then dug in tenaciously to hold off a game Flatlined

 

“(Heart to Heart) This clear pace leader will dictate terms up front.  Jockey Leparoux should get the lone lead and then will try to reserve as much energy as possible.  #3 Songsational may upset that plan and challenge for the early lead.  #2 Security Risk will also apply pressure along the rail.  Pace/Speed profile against race shape says use under.”

 

Our top long shot pick in the race, Flatlined, ran a big race to be second.

 

“TOP LONG SHOT (Flatlined) Is 3 for 3 in the Trifecta at GP and 10 for 10 on the turf, overall.  Check out those blazing Dec. works. His races following other bullet works were all top efforts. We haven’t seen his best yet and despite steady racing throughout 2016, projects to move forward again and the price should be very right.”
With Flatlined singled in 2nd and Heart to Heart on top, a suggested $5 Trifecta wager popped for nearly $500.

Bonapaw Stakes (FG)

A scratch of one of the speedsters and then Small Fortune failing to engage Latent Revenge early led to that foe being able to get loose on the lead carving out modest fractions.  The Super Screener top win pick, Green Mask, altered typical tactics and pressed Latent Revenge through the more modest pace and then dug in tenaciously to pass that rival and take the win by a narrow neck.  Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Green Mask:

 

“(Green Mask) A Super Screener top long shot pick in the BC Turf Sprint.  Closer finished a game 5th against much better than what he faces today.  Gets plenty of pace pressure for his late energy distribution profile.  Top turf sprinter win play.”

 

Predicting the pace and pace pressure in a race is a critical key to handicapping success.  Some say it is fools play to do so since anything can happen once the gates open and as jockeys react to the moves of their fellow riders.  Never the less, if you don’t attempt to predict the pace of the race, you will miss out on some of the best opportunities in racing.  In the case of this race, the Super Screener predicted a swift and pressured pace.  When Small Fortune did not engage Latent Revenge early and another speedster dropping out of the race, that pace set up reverted to one that gave Latent Revenge an advantage as under the predicted pace scenario, it was clear Latent Revenge was the best of the forwardly placed type but a bottom of the Superfecta was a more likely finish.
“(Latent Revenge” One of four pace setters that will ensure a swift and pressured pace.  Is 3 for 4 on this turf course which moves him up here.  Needs lone lead for the win but won’t get it here.  Best of the pace types and could hold on for 4th at best.”

Tenacious Stakes (FG)

This was a very strangely run race as Honorable Duty engaged in the early pace and then looked all but cooked before getting a second wind along the rail to come on again for the victory.  The big bomber, Raagheb, ran a similar race…got shuffled back a bit but rallied again to surge for the second place finish.  Super Screener could see that one hitting the bottom of the  Superfecta but nothing better than that given the anticipated soft pace so hats off as he did it all on his own.

 

“(Raagheb) Joins the Tom Amoss barn which has been white hot early in the meet.  Has run ok races and a bottom of the Superfecta finish would not shock but a mid-pack finish is most likely.  Will be too far back for this pace set up.”
Dazzling Gem was a huge disappointment here as his form cycle indicated that he was ready for a big effort in this race.  One has to wonder if there isn’t some minor injury still nagging this 3 year old.  We’ll see how long he goes on this shelf this time.

 

California Chrome

California Chrome, easily disposed of his overmatched rivals in the Winter Challenge race at Los Alamitos. This provided the locals the opportunity to catch California Chrome one last time in California, on the track that was home to Chrome, before embarking on his final preparations for the $12 Million Pegasus race in late January.

Don’t Miss Santa Anita Opening Day Stakes!

There will be no Super Screener for Saturday, 12/24 Christmas Eve, instead we will be featuring Santa Anita’s opening day on Monday 12/26 – which will be loaded with top G1 and G2 stakes action!  That Super Screener edition will be sent out on Christmas Eve.  Hopefully there’s the gift of a big cash in that edition.  Don’t miss it!

Until then enjoy a wonderful Holiday season and may all your wagers in 2017 be winning ones.
Mike

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