Woodward Day Scores & Recap!

One Dreamer

A Super Screener “A” horse, On Leave, won this with relative ease despite the diminishing margin of victory — jockey Florent Geroux wrapped up on her as they approached the wire. I Remember Mama ran a great race coming from last to second which is not easy to do on this turf course.  The Super Screener identified her as a dangerous, improving horse to use “under”:

Note the steady progression forward in each race and the fact that this was just her third race in nearly a year suggesting that she had plenty more left in the tank.

The Super Screener Top Value horse, Last Promise Kept, obliged with a strong closing third place finish to complete the Trifecta as solid odds of 11-1.

“Hopefully we’ll get some value on #12 Last Promise Kept as she had no shot whatsoever in that last race in which she was dead last while the pace leaders walked the first 7 furlongs of the race. Those three prior turf efforts are far more representative of what she is capable of running here.  No doubt she needs some pace for her best but even a pace around par would aid her late run. Softer turf helps.”

Note the dreadfully low BRIS E1 and E2 figures of 48 and 51 indicating just how slow they were going on the front end. All horses in the race then earned a huge triple-digit Late Pace figure including for Last Promise Kept but she had the added disadvantage of going 5 to 6 wide in the upper stretch running evenly throughout. If you toss her race run on the sloppy surface at Pimilico, those other turf races highlighted in green were much more representative of her true ability and current form.

The Super Screener suggested Trifecta and Superfecta tickets hit for over $400.

John C. Mabee (G2)

Ranked in the top 3, Vasilika made it 6 victories in a row and did so facing her toughest competitors to date.  She was perfectly positioned throughout, sitting just 4 lengths off the early lead and was able to outrun the odds-on favorite, Cambodia, to the wire (though the latter foe was doing the best running late). There was a lot of traffic early on, and Cambodia was shuffled back a bit and just too far back in a race which featured the pace leader and pace presser holding on for 3rd and 4th, respectively.  The suggested Super Screener “saver” ticket hit but with top three betting choices completing the Exacta, the pay off was paltry.

Saranac (G3)

The Super Screener’s top three ranked horses finished in that exact order and that included the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, March to the Arch, who lost 2nd place by just a neck after leading this field through every call at odds of 11-1. Top Board Hitter and Top Win pick by the Super Screener, Raging Bull, was comfortable throughout, never too far back and he was able to leverage that very kind quick turn of foot to push on by with ease to win at generous odds of 5-2 considering he is a Chad Brown-trained horse.

“#1 Up the Ante is very dangerous on a lone lead and if his only early threat, #5 Sand Dancer, doesn’t go with him, he could get awfully brave on the front end and take this one all the way as the pace projects to be quite modest. The added ground actually helps his chances.  #3 Raging Bull out of the Chad Brown barn is the one to beat and is a very reliable Exacta player and should be used that way in structuring your wagers as we suggest below. He possesses a wicked turn of foot so he has the ability to overcome a modest pace, but as he is a confirmed closer, a swifter pace would be preferred. Added ground should help. The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, #2 March to the Arch has the advantage of not only running twice at 1 1/8 miles but doing so in his last 2 races and winning both of them. Given the ship in from Woodbine and the fact that Mark Casse’s win record this meet has been poor, the bettors will let this one go at 10-1 or higher. If you like to focus your wagers on value, this is the horse to key in on. #8 Free Drop Billy will get bet by virtue of being on the Triple Crown trail and though he has turf breeding on the dam side, going to include him in the wagers but not terribly confident he’ll run a good race here.”

The suggested Super Screener Exacta wager paid $132.

Spinaway (G1)

This turned out to be the race of the day and perhaps even the race of the summer when it comes to a wagering opportunity. The Super Screener Top Value play, Sippican Harbor, leveraged that 7-furlong experience to close into the highly pressured pace, passing all the tiring front runners struggling to get the added ground, to go on for a decisive win at extraordinary odds of 16-1.  The Super Screener 2nd choice, Restless Rider, finished 2nd as the second betting choice in the field.

Note that the winner, Sippican Harbor, was the only filly in the field to run beyond 6 furlongs in a prior start, and did so by recording 90’s in every BRIS pace/speed slot, which indicates energy was laid out in a balanced way and that this horse was loaded with reserve energy coming into this race.

But, the big story her is how the Super Screener’s two top long shots, Cassies Dreamer and Bella Ciao finished 3rd and 4th, respectively, at mind boggling odds of 68-1 and 125-1!!!

 

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about the top four finishers prior to the race:

 

“Both #6 Sippican Harbor and #11 Restless Rider are very interesting contenders here in that they both laid out energy in that desired balanced way, posting 90’s in each of their BRIS Pace components. #6 Sippican Harbor has the added advantage of having submitted her blow-away win at today’s 7-furlong distance. Each of these fillies are working very well up to this race.  #1 Cassies Dreamer offers a ton of value and, while not a win threat, she should be used on the bottom of your Trifecta and Superfecta wagers. She will improve off that last effort despite only facing 4 rivals in a maiden claimer, plus, 7 panels will be welcomed.  #9 Bella Ciao is the lone closer in the race and while she doesn’t measure up with the top players in this field, she will pass a lot of those pressers who will find the pace or added ground just too much to go on. A must include “under” in wagers”

 

The suggested Super Screener wagers for this race were as follows:

$1 Trifecta 7,(6) with 4,5,6,10,11 with 1,3,4,5,6,9,10,11 AND

$1 Trifecta 4,5,6,7,11 with 4,7,(11) with 1,3,4,5,6,7,9,10,11

 

OPTIONAL: $.30 Superfecta 6,7,11 with 4,5,6,7,10,11 with (1) 4,5,6,7,10,11 with 1,3,9

 

Note that the numbers highlighted in red are those of the horses that occupied that spot at the end of the race.  Also note, that the numbers highlighted in green and in parenthesis are the one addition to each ticket that would have resulted in a cash.  In the instance of the Trifecta, those tickets paid nearly $1,800 each. The $.30 Superfecta paid a whopping $15,600!!! We would love to hear from any of you who built your own tickets using our analysis that resulted in the big score.  Shows you that going wider sometimes and paying a bit more will catch these gargantuan payoffs when.

All was not lost here as we had the winner at 16-1 in several Pick 4 tickets keeping us alive going into the final two legs.

Woodward (G1)

Yoshida successfully made the transition from turf to dirt picking on a mediocre field to win convincingly giving trainer Bill Mott another viable contender for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Gunnevera showed that strong late run and was clearly 2nd best.  Note that the pace leader and pace presser finished 3rd and 4th, which continued the constant parade of pace types outrunning their odds in these dirt route races at Saratoga.

Seeking the Soul was a huge disappointment, rushing up after a poor start and then finishing nearly last. Super Screener needed that horse to have any shot at cashing here.  

Yoshida, however, was used prominently in Pick 4 tickets keeping us alive to several tickets in the final leg.

Glens Falls (G2)

Just as the Super Screener called it, Lady Montdore was live here to take them all the way on the very slow projected pace and she won convincingly.  

“The most interesting filly in the race is #8 Lady Montdore as she makes just her second start since about a year ago.  Her 2018 debut 3 weeks ago was quite handy despite running against easier. She did over heat post that race but she is reportedly good to go.  She’ll only improve off that last effort and there is no about her ability to get this marathon distance. She also possesses a pace advantage here and will be on or near the lead throughout making her very dangerous as they carve out the slow fractions.”

While a Super Screener suggested Exacta wager clicked the big story here was scoring on several Pick 4 tickets and thanks to the 16-1 shot winning the Spinaway, the three winning Pick 4 tickets returned about $1,500 or nearly $4,500 in total.

 

While we say farewell to Del Mar and Saratoga, the spotlight turns to Kentucky Downs and their stakes-loaded, player-friendly card on Saturday.  We’ll cover it and bring you the best plays of the day.

Until next weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike