Fountain of Youth SHOCKER

Fountain of Youth (G2)

The much anticipated G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes, which featured the 2018 debut of the 2017 Juvenile champion, Good Magic, produced quite a shocking result. First shock was the fact that based on the history of this race, the winner of this year’s Fountain of Youth, Promises Fulfilled, was the first horse in years to wire the field. In addition, horses shipping in off layoffs have not performed well. Also, no horse in the past 10 years has won this race at odds of higher than 7-1. Last, the connections of the other speed horses, including Strike Power and Machismo, just let Promises Fulfilled have the clear lead with just modest pressure from Strike Power. Again, we have a prep race in which the result was a merry-go-round race with the top three finishers running in pretty much the same order as where they began the race.

While Good Magic didn’t win the race, he can definitely move forward off this one. He was clearly blowing hard after the race, so he needed this added conditioning with only three prior starts in his career and the long layoff. Look for longer works and a bit more aggressive gallops in the weeks to come.

Strike Power demonstrated that he can handle two turns and will go on to the G1 Florida Derby from here. Note that Joel Rosario had to tap on the brakes with Storm Runner several times during the early stages of the race before falling back.  

Super Screener assessment of this race as a Kentucky Prep is as follows:

Race Flow: Moderate/Fast

Track Bias: Kind to forwardly placed types on the rail.

Troubled Trips: Storm Runner (repeated traffic issues in the early going)

Impressive Performance: Promises Fulfilled

Super Screener ECR (Early Contender Rating): Promises Fulfilled 100; Good Magic 78; Strike Power 56

Super Screener EPR (Early Prep Rating) Score = B+

Comments: Promises Fulfilled comes out of this race with a 100 ECR score making this the only horse other than Audible to post a perfect Early Contender Rating. This race concludes the time period that defines the early Kentucky Derby preps as we now move deeper into the penultimate preps, which will take place over the next three weekends. Promises Fulfilled will now have to show that he can be rated in the G1 Florida Derby — pace types struggle to win the Kentucky Derby. Good Magic clearly needed this race and, hopefully for connections, got something out of it as a stepping stone into this next and final prep race. Does he have sufficient foundation to win the Kentucky Derby? Strike Power ran a good 2nd, showing he can handle 2 turns, but will have to prove he belongs with the best.

Davona Dale (G2)

The Super Screener Top Win Pick and lone “A” horse, Fly So High, established herself as a strong early Kentucky Oaks contender by easily disposing this field at odds of 7-5. The pace was close to par, and the pressure was heavy. Both Cache and Alter Moon succumbed to that pressure, but Fly So High and Take Charge Paula prevailed on a track surface that was certainly kind to inside speed. Unfortunately, that worked against our Top Board Hitter pick, Sultry, who closed determinedly nearing the wire but came up a half length short to Heavenhasmynikki.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Fly So High before the race:

“The top win pick in here will be #8 Fly So High. No filly ran a race even close to her last race going the 1-turn mile on the GP surface. She tracked a very hot pace while outside and then engaged a stubborn rival for a furlong, but then drew away at will posting huge pace and final speed numbers. This massive filly will only get better with added ground but right now she is cleaning up going these 1-turn mile affairs. She is the deserved favorite and trainer Shug McGaughey was wise to rest her for 60 days after that huge lifetime effort last out. Is the one to beat here for sure and best to play on top in Exactas over high value “under” players.”

Take Charge Paula took advantage of the glib surface on this day and grabbed 2nd place to key the chalky Exacta and the suggested Super Screener Exacta wagers came back to pay $300.

Mac Diarimda (G2)

Sadler’s Joy was one of only two Super Screener “A” horses in the race (the other being the Top Win pick Patterson Cross, who was a complete no show and disappointment off the long layoff) and came from 12th to 1st in the final 3 furlongs to grab the top prize at 9-5.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Sadler’s Joy before the race:

“The headliner in this field and post time favorite is #1 Sadler’s Joy, who gets his 2018 campaign started post a great 2017 tour that concluded with a sharp 4th in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. He isn’t likely to be at his peak, but he has run well off similar layoffs and is likely to repeat that pattern shown early last year with two sharp Exacta efforts post layoffs on this turf course. His weapon is that swift turn of foot which makes him pace INdependent. Great horse to single up and down in Exotics wagers as a reliable Super Screener Top Board Hitter.”

One Go All Go at 12-1 held on impressively to the end after cutting all the early fractions, repelling all challengers in the process, and, Nessy, the Super Screener third choice, got up for third at more-than-generous odds of 11-1.  That resulted in a decent pay out of the Super Screener suggested Trifecta of $223. 

 

Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3)

Favorable Outcome and Mr. Jordan did not show up and it has become very clear that Noholdingback Bear is no where near the horse he used to be. That left it up to the Super Screener “Now” horse, Classic Rock, to get the job done. After pressing the demanding pace, he confirmed that his prior race was indeed no fluke and he just ran away from this field. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this good looking sprinter:

“#4 Classic Rock is a horse-for-course winning 4 of 5 starts on this surface and is a bit of a NOW horse. He was on the bench for about 5 months before returning in December to impress, dueling throughout against good horses and then drawing away for the win. He will press or stalk here and with 3 wins on this course going 7 panels, 6.5 furlongs will be even better. Will need something close to his last effort to impact here. Trainer has been patient with this 4 year-old and has spaced his races well.”

Sweetontheladies shocked all when completing the Exacta at 95-1, passing up all the cheap speed and taking advantage of the “no show” performances of the favorites. As a side note, the $.10 Superfecta paid a wallet-busting $3,111.13… could you imagine what it would have paid if the Super Screener Top Long Shot Unbridled Outlaw at odds of 34-1 would have not relinquished 4th place a few strides from the wire to Mr. Jordan at 9-2?

 

Canadian Turf (G3)

The Super Screener did some extra digging into Hogy’s record and saw he had some limited success going the mile distance in his past, so it would not have been a surprise at all to see him hit the board … but it was a bit of surprise to see the 9 year-old not only win, but do so by an increasing margin. Galleon Mast was one of the best Super Screener “A” horses on the day, and while he ran a solid race and did encounter some traffic late, he was clearly second best on this day. The suggested Superfecta wagers hit but the outcome was chalky.

GP Maiden

The 11th race kicked off the late Pick 4 so we decided to include it as a bonus to subscribers and as full-field maiden races often do, it turned out to be one of the most profitable races on the day. Hofburg, a Super Screener Top Long shot pick who took a lot of money in the wagering to go off at odds of 7-1, won the race in a gutsy performance given that long layoff and poor post draw. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Hofburg:

“#11 Hofburg – TOP LONG SHOT – Been away since Sept. for Mott but gets Lasix and has submitted a strong series of works.  Was a bit slow from the start in that last race and went very wide around the turn and hung in there for 4th with some good ones.”

Even better, B I Moody, the horse that rounded out our Superfecta wager, exceeded expectations and finished a game, closing 2nd at huge odds of 36-1.  Then it was up to our other Top Long Shot pick, B I Moody, to hold on to fourth for a “score of a lifetime” Superfecta pay out but she got clipped by the closer, Personal Time, in the shadow of the wire by a half length.

Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this Top Longshot pick:

“#4 B I Moody – TOP LONG SHOT –  Left from the dreaded 12 post, lost a few steps out of the gate and ran wide around that 1st turn. With a clean break and a much better post post position he’ll sit closer to the pace and get first run.  Offers a ton of value.”

The suggested $.20 Superfecta wager was hit a for a handsome return of $754!

The spotlight turns to Tampa Bay Downs and Aqueduct next week as they host the G2 Tampa Bay Derby and the G3 Gotham Stakes.  Each track’s marquee event will be supported by a strong stakes-filled undercard and we’ll cover the best of the best… don’t miss it!

Until then, Go Fast and Win!

Mike