Hot Derby Contender Emerges from Tampa Bay Derby

By CandiceCurtis
Updated: March 13, 2017

Photo by Douglas DeFelice/Eclipse Sportswire

G2 Tampa Bay Derby

Trainer Todd Pletcher has now won 4 of the last 5 editions of the Tampa Bay Derby and his charge, Tapwrit, did so breaking the track record set by his stablemate in this race last year, Destin. The track was quite glib all day but the Tapwrit victory was much better than it looked as he closed on a surface that was kinder to those sitting up front. However, he did get the anticipated swift pace that would enable his closing style. It is not noted in the charts but he also had to take up some heading into the first turn due to No Dozing getting squeezed, forcing him to drift outside, which caused Tapwrit to check, losing about 2 lengths in the process (as did No Dozing).

Tapwrit was the horse to beat despite the anticipated low odds:

The top board hitter pick, Beasley, disappointed as the wise guy horse and long shot bomber, Tale of Silence didn’t lift a hoof. State of Honor is a very big colt that is strong headed but has that long stride and lung capacity that keeps him around the money despite being almost impossible to rate. The Super Screener accurately anticipated that he would catch a piece of this despite the expected hot pace. Here’s what the Super Screener projected for State of Honor:

“(State of Honor) Strong-headed type will definitely be forwardly placed but he doles out his energy rather evenly for a pace type so it will be no surprise if he hits the board though something other than the win is more likely. Contender.”

No Dozing ran okay but confirmed our assessment that he is really a second tier horse among this crop. He too lost about 2 lengths in this race after getting squeezed back heading into the first turn.

Of the single-digit horses that were most vulnerable, the Super Screener correctly identified Tapwrit’s stablemate, Sonic Mule, as one that would severely disappoint as he did finishing last of the horses that didn’t pull up…

“(Sonic Mule) VULNERABLE Has run every month for the past 8 and that is not like Pletcher who likes lots of space between his best charge’s races. Appears to have peaked and will be a better sprinter. Will set the table for #5 Tapwrit.”

Among the suggested wagers that cashed, the $1 Superfecta hit for $230.90.

G2 San Felipe

Mastery was masterful for trainer, Bob Baffert, in making a mockery of this field on his away to an impressive draw-away victory. However, from that highest high came the lowest low as jockey Mike Smith sensed something had gone wrong in the gallop out past the wire and quickly dismounted and held him steady. In the end, Mastery had fractured his condylar bone in his left front leg, which is a common and non-life threatening injury. He’ll have surgery today as they put a few screws in the injured area. Time will tell if he’ll be able to run again, and of course, he is off the Derby trail.

Gormley disappointed as the second favorite and connections will have to re-evaluate. Iliad, the former Bob Baffert trainee, was impressive in his first route, holding on more tenaciously than most would have projected. It will be interesting to see how he handles the 1 1/8 mile distance of the G1 Santa Anita Derby.
While this was not a playable race from a wagering value perspective, it was a much anticipated Derby prep race and we saw the best 3 year-old in the West take care of this field. Hoping Mastery can get back to 100% soon.

G3 Florida Oaks

The top Super Screener board hitter pick got a bit of a swifter pace than projected which made it easier to come from dead last to win this race, stylishly. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about Fifty Five:

“TOP BOARD HITTER (Fifty Five) Finished a very game 3rd in the G3 Sweetest Chant passing #9 Compelled after the wire. Will once again be coming from dead last against a modest pace. Projects to move slightly forward here. Closes fast along with #4 Daddy’s Lil Darling.”

The Super Screener anticipated that La Coronel might need a race off the long layoff. What a game effort on the return with a really impressive stretch drive which had her in the lead at one point but she came up just a neck short for the win. You can expect her to just dominate her next race with this one under her saddle. This is what the Super Screener was indicating before the race:

“The G3 Florida Oaks marks the 2017 debut for the very highly regarded, #5 La Coronel, out of the Mark Casse barn. She is the team’s #1 three year-old turf filly and has reportedly trained well up to this. Hasn’t been seen since running a much-better-than-it looked 6th place finish in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf race last November. She’s the best horse in the race so it is just a matter of how well she can run off the bench. If anyone is listening to her trainer, Mark Casse, he is indicating she is ready to pop at first asking.”

Another Super Screener long shot bomb pick hit the Superfecta with #3 Dynatail running impressively chasing the swift pace and then hung on resolutely for 4th at 15-1 finishing best of the four long shots. Here’s the Super Screener insight into this filly:

“The local filly, #3 Dynatail, will try to take advantage of the fact that other than an overmatched #8 Like a Hurricane, she doesn’t face any viable competition for the early lead. Local jock, Orlando Bocachica, will attempt to back this field up and carve out an excruciatingly slow early pace and then hold on to everything she has for a piece of the Superfecta. Clearly, with the 2 for 2 win record on this turf course, she has a good shot to hold on for a bit of an upset in the minor prizes.”

With the top three favorites comprising the Trifecta, it came back chalky for the suggested Trifecta wagers that hit.

China Doll Stakes

Wow, what a disappointment this race turned out to be from a wagering perspective. The Super Screener is always sifting through all the weekend’s major and minor stakes races to see which of those that aren’t required coverage (like Kentucky Derby preps) can offer the greatest value. The China Doll projected to offer a ton of value but in the end the Exacta was comprised of the favorite and second favorite. The Super Screener just got it wrong on Sircat Sally as being a vulnerable favorite as she gamely sat off the swift pace and then held on stoutly from the fast charging Super Screener top win top board hitter pick, Beau Recall…

“The Super Screener landed on #10 Beau Recall as the tepid top win pick. Her US debut off the 5-month layoff and getting Lasix for the first time was visibly impressive. Really displayed a wicked late turn of foot and drove through the wire with authority. Does face a bit tougher here but she also projects to move forward off that last effort. Will sit about 9th early and then explode down the lane. She’s the Super Screener most reliable board hitting prospect.”

La Force, the top Super Screener long shot bomber pick, ran a gallant race and just missed 4th place and shot to complete the Superfecta at nice odds. The added blinkers clearly made the difference. As she ran closer to the pace than she did in any of her prior starts. Here’s what the Super Screener had forecast for La Force:
“TOP LONG SHOT (La Force) Sneaky type picks up blinkers and worked well in them. Finally gets the hot pace she has needed. May need a race off that layoff. Bejarano sticks and a must use on the bottom of your Superfecta ticket”

NEXT WEEK!!

Alright, the Kentucky Derby prep action now swings to Arkansas for the G2 Rebel Stakes and it is coming up really big! Expect a full field of about 10 rivals with Untrapped leading the way, but Bob Baffert (who has won this race 3 times in a row and a ridiculous 6 of the last 7 editions) will have American Anthem cranked up and ready to go. This field will also feature Lookin At Lee, the 4th place bomber of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Todd Pletcher’s, Malagacy. Locally based Petrov, who finished a game second behind One Liner last out, will be here and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner from So. Cal, Royal Mo, with join the fray as well. But that’s not all…the Oaklawn Park card will also feature the Azeri Stakes, an important prep leading up to the Apple Blossom stakes. Santa Anita will also feature the G1 Santa Margarita so plenty of racing action to look forward to next weekend.

Until then…Go fast and win!
Mike