New Year’s CASHES (RECAP)
- Updated: January 7, 2020
Photo By: Lauren King/Gulfstream Park
Kitten’s Joy (G3)
The projected pressured pace did not materialize and that benefited one of the Super Screener’s top two pressers, Island Commish. We tabbed #1 Get Smokin as our Vulnerable Favorite but he went off at nothing close to low odds with the wagering public backing off, resulting in generous odds of 11-1. In the Super Screener Suggested Wagering Strategies, one of them was to use pressers in 1st and 2nd to cover for a slow pace regardless of pressure. That approach paid off with a Trifecta ticket ($1 Trifecta 6,8 with 1,4,6,8 with ALL — $36) that returned $341.
Glitter Woman Stakes
The Super Screener Top Win and Top Board Hitter Pick, Sound Machine just crushed this field pressing the pace. This is what the Super Screener had to say about Sound Machine before the race:
This race could go many ways as you can make a win case for 6 of the 8 entrants. However, the pace set up, anticipated race flow and current surface tendencies favors presser types going this distance. #8 Sound Machine fits that bill quite well. Has not missed the Exacta in two starts sprinting on the GP surface and has dueled through much swifter pace set ups against better than she’ll face here. Really benefits from the more moderate pace here. This is just her 3rd race since August for the top barn so a significant move forward is expected here and it will be enough to turn the tables on the other “A” horse in this race, #6 Spanish Point.
The Super Screener’s next two ranked horses, Spanish Point and Lavi finished 3rd and 4th, respectively. It was the long shot, Sayonara Baby, that spoiled the party finishing 2nd. That last race was just so big compared to her other starts, but one way to have played this was just to cover these fluky speed types in 2nd under the top pick to cover for the possibility that the big race was a legitimate move forward.
Ginger Brew Stakes
This was the highlight race of the day presenting the best wagering opportunity and the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, She’s My Type, despite having to check hard twice in the early going, did not disappoint rallying furiously for the neck win over the trip-compromised, Moral Reasoning and she paid a juicy 9-1.
Drawing from the far outside is the Super Screener Top Long pick, #12 She’s My Type. She picks up first Lasix off that very professionally run race last out in which she won, convincingly, while showing a strong late turn of foot. This pace set up really works to her favor here and, once again, expect her to be towards the back before starting her big move about half way through that final turn and on to the wire. Should get ignored some by the public especially with that far outside draw which is not a real disadvantage for a closer assuming a super wide trip will be and can be avoided. Could surprise for the win but is an even better play “under”.
Moral Reasoning was in tight on the rail having to back off the tiring Cheermeister before getting back into stride which clearly costing her the win. However, as our Top Board Hitter pick, we deployed a wagering strategy that included tight Trifecta tickets with her in 1st, 2nd and 3rd using here over and under Cheermeister, She’s My Type and Abscond. In finishing 2nd two trifecta tickets fired resulting in a payoff that was just over $400.
Mucho Macho Man Stakes
The long layoff did not deter Chance It from coming back off that excellent series of works to win, resolutely, refusing to yield to As Seen On Tv even after that one seized the lead, momentarily. The Super Screener’s other two top picks completed the Superfecta so the race was quite formful. South Bend was a strong win conviction horse but on this day, it was really difficult for horses that close from the back to make an impact even when the pace was swift on what was clearly a speed-friendly surface.
San Gabriel (G2)
The Super Screener was bullish on the winner Desert Stone despite the layoff since May.
Haven’t seen #1 Desert Stone since last May. Ran against much tougher in his three 2019 races. Can run well off the shelf for the top barn but would need better than the Morning Line odds of 3-1 to include more prominently in wagers.
Mike Smith tried to pull off one of his patented wire-to-wire jobs in this marathon race, getting Overdue out front on a one-length lead but Bejarano on Majestic Eagle would not let him rest pressing that rival throughout. While that move has worked for Smith in these slow-paced marathon races, Overdue, however, is a horse who is more comfortable pressing or coming from off the pace.
Santa Ynez (G2)
It was Baffert 1-2-3 and the Super Screener Top Win pick, Bast, winning again on the cut back and defeating her stablemates. The Super Screener’s second choice, Auberge, completed the Exacta and is one to watch as she broke slow, was rushed up and then when challenged in the the stretch she dug down again and, despite losing to Bast, she passed that one in the gallop out. She’ll improve off that effort while Bast rests up for a Spring campaign that will lead to a start in the Kentucky Oaks. However, distance concerns will be legitimate because as for now, she looks to be more of a one-turn type.
It is a lighter stakes weekend coming up but between Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita there are four G3 stakes and hopefully most of those will host larger fields. Taking a look ahead, the following Saturday, 1/18/2020, looks huge as GP will host the Sunshine Millions card and Fair Grounds cards several stakes races including their early Derby prep the Lecomte Stakes. A lot to look forward to as we keep it going in 2020.
Until next weekend go fast and win!
Mike Shutty
