RECAP: A Derby Contender Emerges – Rebel/Ruby Day – Super Screener
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RECAP: A Derby Contender Emerges – Rebel/Ruby Day

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

With the Kentucky Derby now being moved to September, we’ll learn in time how the points system will be altered so as not to penalize those horses that have already earned sufficient points to make it into the Kentucky Derby gate while allowing horses currently on the sidelines the opportunity to participate as well.  Much to be decided…

However, last Saturday we enjoyed two official point-producing Derby preps and one unofficial prep featuring Bob Baffert’s beast, Charlatan.  Here’s what we learned:

Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)

The Super Screener’s two “A” horses, Field Pass and Invader, finished 1-2 to complete the Exacta, and the Super Screener Top Value horse, Fancy Liquor, finished 3rd to complete the Trifecta. The Super Screener suggested wagers for the race combined to pay nearly $200.

The results were pretty orderly here in that the top 2 finishers were deemed to be much the best while Mike Maker was very high on Fancy Liquor. It was a long way back to the rest of the over-matched field.

Not seeing any Kentucky Derby implications here, and you can fully expect that the top 3 finishers will go on to tackle stakes races run on turf for the remainder of the year.

Rebel Stakes (G2)

Wow! Was that impressive or what?  Nadal earned all the hype and praise showered upon him leading up to this race. He dueled through grueling fractions with American Theorem, leaving that rival in the dust after 6 furlongs and he continued on with good energy to hold off the pace advantaged long shot bomber, Excession. This was Nadal’s first try around two turns with added ground, and he more than passed the test. A very viable Kentucky Derby contender.

Charlatan – How Good Is He?

While this wasn’t an official Kentucky Derby prep, we may have witnessed what could be the top Kentucky Derby contender at this moment. He faced nothing here so ignore the margin of victory…it was the way he ran this race that was so impressive. Take a look at the running lines of Field Pass and Nadal compared to Charlatan:

Field Pass 
1st Call: 83,  2nd Call = 86; Late Pace = 98; Speed Rating = 94

Nadal
1st Call: 102,  2nd Call = 105; Late Pace = 83; Speed Rating = 95

Charlatan
1st Call: 95, 2nd Call = 107; Late Pace= 100; Speed Rating = 105


Now that is a big league running line.  Anytime you see 100+ figures from the 2nd call to the final speed figure, sit up and take notice. That is the mark of a horse that will not only get the Kentucky Derby distance, but would be one of the ones to beat on the first Saturday of September… assuming he can hold his form over these next several months.

Latonia Stakes

3 of the top 4 ranked Super Screener horses comprised the Trifecta and a suggested wager paid nearly $100.

KY Cup Classic

In this race, the Super Screener’s top 4 ranked horses filled each slot of the Superfecta.  Once again, a suggested Super Screener wager paid nearly $100. 

Everything is a bit fluid right not but plans remain in place to run the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds this Saturday, and it features an overflow field of 14 with 2 Also-Eligibles. Through the initial screening, it looks like this race will provide plenty of wagering value. The under card features a couple of salty turf stakes races which also appear to offer plenty of value. 

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast, Stay Healthy and Win!
Mike

One Comment

  1. Paes

    March 18, 2020 at 10:20 am

    just how good were the others horses he beat ,big field and all and went right to the lead never looked back hard to really think that he had any competition .i will hold my comments until i see him in a real horse race .