RECAP: Lecomte Day Cashes + Sunshine Millions Scores
- Updated: January 20, 2020
It was a huge weekend of stakes action with the Lecomte and several other stakes at the Fair Grounds and Sunshine Millions Day at Gulfstream Park. For reference, here are the full Fair Grounds results and Gulfstream Park results.
Lecomte Stakes (G3)
The Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Enforceable, ended up going off at odds of close to 7-1. He took full advantage of the highly-pressured pace to come from near last all the way to first, showing a very smart move around the turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch and never look back. The Super Screener Top Win pick, Silver State also closed nicely to deny Mr. Monomoy the 2nd place finish. Finishing 4th and also closing from the clouds was #1 Finnick the Fierce, our other Super Screener Top Long Shot pick.
Here’s what we had to say about this trio of top ranked horses before the race:
#9 Silver State – TOP VALUE/OFF PACE – Best of the Asmussen trio will continue that forward move in his form cycle. Another that lays out energy in a balanced way. Is begging for even more ground but will be well positioned here. Very sharp recent works.
#4 Scabbard – TOP BOARD HITTER/OFF PACE – Lays out energy in that ideal balanced way. Worked against the bias in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Will sit a great trip saving ground off the hot and pressured pace and then proceed with high energy to the wire.
#10 Enforceable – TOP LONG SHOT/CLOSER – Will likely be last early and comes running late to pass a lot of pace-weary horses. Lost 2 lengths at the start…was 4 wide coming out of the 2nd turn and was pace compromised last out. Resumes a strong form cycle ascent.
#1 Finnick The Fierce – TOP LONG SHOT/OFF PACE – Was hampered at the start two races back. Improved last out in first route try but was wide turning for home. Look for a continuation of that progression in this gelding’s form cycle. Crazy good works leading up to this.
Suggested Exacta and Trifecta wagers combined for a return of nearly $340. In addition, three suggested Pick-4 tickets hit for $580 (total cost of all tickets = $345).
Col. E.R. Bradley Stakes
As we shared in the webcast, #4 Dontblamerocket was our best play of the day and just blew this field away for trainer, Norm Casse. This is why we were so bullish on this horse:
#4 Dontblamerocket is the number 1 pick in this race. This 6-year-old, a recent claim by trainer Norm Casse, has raced only 13 times but has made the most of the limited action by finishing in the Trifecta 11 times. Has been improving and projects to move forward again here. Runs well of breaks as he will here. Is 6 for 7 in the Exacta when running on FG turf. Even posted a very strong recent work. Everything points to a new lifetime top here and he is the Top Long shot pick in this race.
This horse was as consistent as they come, having missed the Superfecta just once in his last 10 starts. Loves this turf course as evidenced by the 6-for-7 Exacta record. As we noted, this horse is at his best when running off lengthy layoffs and he did it again here. Note, the lofty BRIS Late Pace figures posted in his last two races. They were his lifetime best which is another indicator of superior ability among these foes.
Kicking myself for excluding just one C horse, Midnight Tea Time. After the numerous scratches I should have just hit the ALL button in the 2 hole. The A/C combo comes in quite frequently, especially in grass races. Best not to exclude any of the “C” horses when it comes to that type of wager.
Marie G. Krantz Memorial Stakes
Quebec was the class of the field and was able to get away with carving out a modest pace and then dug in with everything she had to hold off the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Don’t Tell Marge who closed with a hurry late to complete that Exacta. Here’s what the Super Screener had to say about this long shot before the race:
Unlike #2 Smart Emma, #3 Don’t Tell Marge is a deep closer that owns the best BRIS Late Pace figures in the race. She will sit last in this field of 11 and will be passing a lot of pace-weary horses, late, to catch of piece of this or even win it at a huge price. The only nagging concern is her ability on softer turf as her lone try on good turf was a dud. Other than that, this race couldn’t set up any better for her. In that last race she swung out wide and passed a bunch of horses and continued to pass all in the gallop out. Should move forward in her 3rd start off the layoff.
That helped the Exacta pay off reach over $200 for the suggested Exacta wager.
Sunshine Millions Filly/Mare Turf
Doesn’t get more orderly than this. The odds-on favorite and Super Screener Top Win pick and “A” horse, #7 Starship Jubilee, and our 2nd pick and other “A” horse, #1 Beautiful Lover finished 1-2. The Super Screener’s two Top Long Shot picks finished 3rd and 4th as predicted. Sweet Hitch Hiker needed one more biscuit to hang on to third to help out that Trifecta pay off some. Either way, it was an anticipated chalky affair and that’s how it turned out.
Sunshine Millions Sprint
#1 Extravagant Kid defied the Super Screener regression theory and played into the track-favoring presser profile for 6 furlong sprints and won rather handily with the Super Screen Top Win pick finishing, Lady’s Island finishing 2nd. Our next two choices finished 3rd and 4th. It was another chalky affair.
Sunshine Millions Turf
Ouch! Back-to-back Super Screener Vulnerable Favorites showing up for the win. Casse had 3 in here and it was his Graded Stakes horse, #9 March to the Arch that got the job done as the favorite. The field was just too easy even if he needed this race off the layoff. The Super Screener Top Board Hitter pick, Muggsamatic, did deliver on his designation by finishing 2nd. Our 3rd place pick, Galleon Mast, also came through and, indeed, finished 3rd at surprising odds of 12-1.
Cal Cup Oaks
The Super Screener Top “A” horse and Top Board Hitter pick, #5 Warren’s Showtime, got the perfect trip, stalking the moderate but pressured pace and when jockey, Velez, found that seam on the rail he shot through witj a strong turn of foot and prevailed by nearly 4 lengths.
“#5 Warren’s Showtime is the most reliable board hitter in the race as she has two wins on the SA turf going this mile distance and that last win was against a very salty bunch. Tried sprinting on dirt and performed okay but will prefer the return to routing on the lawn. Great vertical wagers single.”
A Super Screener “B” horse, #12 Warrior’s Moon completed the Trifecta at hard-to-believe odds of 21-1. The suggested Exacta wager returned $290.
This past weekend’s racing was just an appetizer in front of the big feast that will be served this weekend. We kick the action off with a Kentucky Derby points race, the Smarty Jones, which will be run on Friday as Oaklawn Park kicks off their promising meet. Then it’s Pegasus day at Gulfstream Park on Saturday featuring the G1 Pegasus World Cup and G1 World Cup Turf. Those Grade 1’s will be supported by 7 other stakes races on the day. What a huge day of racing and we’ll be all over it so don’t miss a beat.
You can always follow all the horse races on today on Horse Racing Nation.
Until next weekend go fast and win!
Mike Shutty
