Travers Stakes 2016 – CRUSHED IT – Super Screener
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Travers Stakes 2016 – CRUSHED IT

Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire

G1 Travers

We may have witnessed one of the greatest races of the year in the Travers Stakes.  What a performance by #1 Arrogate who cut swift early fractions for this distance and drew away as if he walked early.  An absolutely astounding feat, crushing the track record in the meantime.  Watch out Chrome and Frosted!  If anyone was listening to Bob Baffert about this colt earlier in the year “his best 3 year-old in the barn,” and took a moment to really analyze his incredible energy distribution profile, his win at almost 12-1 was not tough to come up with.

 

“(Arrogate) By far Baffert’s best 3 year-old.  Had shin problems so a late bloomer.  Just toying against most recent rivals.  Begs for 1 1/4 distance.  Triple digit late pace figs in all four starts.  Incredible works.  Big win shot/huge value.”

People saw the second place finisher, #2 American Freedom, as the top Baffert player.  His jockey, Rafael Bejarano, sounding a little ticked off, was not happy that the owners of #2 American Freedom wanted him on their horse as he was the regular rider on #1 Arrogate, conceding that was the better horse.  

 

If you were to take the Baffert pair and our top 2 long shot picks for the race, you have the Superfecta.  We learned from the barn that #14 Gun Runner does not like the wet going so it was easy to then put a line through his Haskell drubbing.  Once you do that, it is hard to knock this horse who easily finished third at nearly 10-1.

8-29-2016 John S Travers win testimonial

Big Congrats to John S. who hit big Saturday – did you win, too? We want to hear about it at [email protected]!

“(Gun Runner) TOP LONG SHOT Reportedly struggled on the sloppy going last out being too eager early.  Rebounds today at a price.  Sits off a modest pace in an ideal outside position.  Held his own against Nyqvist and Exaggerator.”

 

#9 Gift Box is a long shot horse we really liked.  We knew his favored stablemate #10 Connect was not suited for this kind of race and that #9 Gift Box had the better Travers profile coming in.  He did not disappoint and ran a really good race to finish a solid 4th at 17-1, finishing best of the other bombers in the race.

 

“(Gift Box) TOP LONG SHOT Best of Chad Brown’s trio.  Also caught a slow pace chasing stablemate, Connect, losing no ground throughout.  Takes a big step up but moves forward in a big way third race in 2016.  Would love 15-1+.”

A trip note and a horse to watch next out is #4 Governor Malibu.  He came from last to 5th in a race that was not kind to closers.  

 

The Super Screener also accurately faded both #7 Exaggerator and #12 Creator… two horses that have done a lot of racing this year and showing signs of needing a break.  This morning it was announced that #12 Creator is going out to the farm the rest of the year.  
While the wagers we create are suggested approaches, it is always good to see what we suggest hit as they did in this race leading to nearly $1,900 in pay off!

8-29-2016 travers chart w tickets B

 

G1 Ballerina

The Breeders’ Cup-like card at Saratoga on Travers Day continued to roll and in the Ballerina Stakes we saw some of the top female sprinters in the country… a preview of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.  #5 Sarah Sis and top Super Screener pick, #9 Carina Mia, dueled early with the former backing out early as predicted but the hot pace didn’t leave enough energy in the tank for #9 Carina Mia.  However, she arguably ran the best race today having done all the work up front and still held on gamely for third.  

 

#10 Haveyougoneaway, our second choice to #9 Carina Mia and top board hitter candidate kept on her great form cycle pattern and closed into that hot pace to capture the win.

 

“(Haveyougoneaway) has done nothing wrong and is in the middle of a beautiful 5-race ascending form cycle pattern.  Another that rarely misses the Trifecta.  Secures the ideal off the pace, outside trip.  She is our best board hitter candidate.”

 

G1 King’s Bishop

From our top 3 ranked horses in the King’s Bishop came the Exacta with our top win pick #13 Drefong taking the victory in wire-to-wire fashion at generous odds of 7-2.  In a wide open field, he figured much the best according to the Super Screener though the fact that he was good enough to take the field from gate to wire under good fractions only makes this one look better going into the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.  

 

Not many people were talking about #1 Economic Model, but trip and form cycle analysis came in handy here and the added blinkers were a key addition.  When he opened at 11-1, I couldn’t believe it, but then he eventually drifted down to 7-1 in the closing seconds before the race.

 

“(Economic Model) Gets blinkers and working well in them.  Best at one turn.  Cut back in distance here is a big plus.  Has the perfect, balanced energy distribution profile that matches up well with the profile that wins this race.  Big shot!”
This race was very formful and the four finishers were all legit.  #3 Summer Revolution had a troubled start and proved that he belongs with these despite the fact he had only two career starts prior to this race.

G1 Forego

This was the most frustrating race in the series, as it was easy to have A.P. Indian in the win spot and he did not disappoint (unlike Limousine Liberal who had no excuses on his way to a dull effort) and the even money favorite but a long time Super Screener favorite, Tamarkuz, blew up the bottom of the Exacta at 20-1.  A handicapping lesson learned… if the Super Screener really likes a horse don’t be quick to give up on it, especially from a top barn.  

 

#10 Dannie’s Deceiver was a Super Screener top long shot bomber pick and exploded the bottom of the Superfecta at eye-popping odds of 40-1.  He even had trouble early bumping three times with #9 Ready for Rye and, conceivably, with a better trip, could have finished third.

 

“(Dannie Deceiver) TOP LONG SHOT If you can get 20-1+, get on it.  Really getting good at the right time.  Finally gets some needed pace pressure to close into. Super at this distance and late pace figures are tops in this bunch. Can win!”

Finally –

Plenty of Summer racing action is left as we get into Labor Day weekend, before the Del Mar and Saratoga meets come to an end.  Just Saturday alone we’ll have 6 graded stakes to choose from based on value potential:

 

Saratoga/Del Mar – Saturday

-G1 Woodward
-G1 Spinaway
-G3 Saranac
-G3 Glen Falls
-G1 Debutante

Join us again next weekend as we look forward to close out these meets on a high note.

Go Fast and Win!

Mike

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