Weekend RECAP – Top Long Shot Takes Churchill Feature

Mint Julep (G3)

Man, this race was looking great at mid stretch wasn’t it?… With Juliet Foxtrot taking command from the pace setter Mitchell Road. However, it was the Super Screener Top Long Shot pick, Secret Message that swept by for the big upset win, with 3 Super Screener “B” horses completing the remaining Superfecta slots. Here’s what we said about Secret Message prior to the race:

While there will be several horses in here that offer good value relative to their chances, #7 Secret Message’s form may be darkened up enough to provide much better than the 8-1 M/L odds.  Note after a successful 3 yr-old campaign, she ran just 5 times in 2019 winning her first start off the 6-month layoff showing a strong turn of foot overcoming the slow pace. She came right back with another win in the G2 Nassau at Woodbine. After that it, was off to Saratoga where she stepped up and finished close to much tougher competition including Chad Brown’s monsters Sistercharlie and Rushing Falls. After a break, Graham Motion stretched her out to the 1 1/4 mile distance in the G2 E.P. Taylor. After a poor start she trailed the field by many lengths sitting behind an extremely slow pace that featured a dawdling internal 6-furlong fraction of a sloth like 1:17 1/5. Like the rest of the field, they held their position and ran sprint-fast over the final quarter behind the loose leader and Woodbine turf lover, Starship Jubilee. Like last year she comes off a layoff now and faces much easier.

This Graham Motion-trained filly won this affair at monster odds of 25-1 which is great… but we really needed Juliet Foxtrot to hold onto at least 2^nd to make a score. Hope you had something on Secret Message in the end.

Churchill Downs R10

Pretty orderly finish as the Super Screener “A” horse and two of the three “B” horses comprised the Trifecta. Fearless, after a poor start that had him last of all in the early going, seized the closer bias that was in play at CD on this day and swept past a very game Top Seed who did all the early work pressing the pace. 

We faded the 3^rd choice on board, Plus Que Parfait, ranking him 7^th and he finished a tiring 6^th. Twelfth of Labour was “bumped and bothered into the first turn” and was out of the race from the start versus being one of the earlier competitors.

The Super Screener suggested Exacta with Fearless over Top Seed paid over $125.

Winning Colors (G3)

The Super Screener’s top two picks, Break Even and Mia Mischief, finished 2^nd and 3^rd, respectively after setting the former rival set brutally fast fractions through the early going.  That opened the door for a closer to clean up but instead of the higher ranked closers of Princess Causeway and, even Unique Factor, it was Bell’s the One who took all the marbles in a surprise upset as the parade of long shots at CD continued.

Churchill Downs R9

Didn’t have Whimsical Muse or Even Beat, anyway, but for those of you who had seen this race, did you not believe I’llhandalthecash was going to run by them all before slamming on the breaks behind the disqualified Hidden Facts who was tiring badly and lugged out to the right, abruptly cutting off that filly and causing a chain reaction of other impeded trips? Another race in which the top six finishers were separated by just a length.

Honeymoon (G3)

I get Mike Smith wanting to leverage the same tactic he did in winning big last out with Parkour by opening up on the field, but not sure what he was trying to accomplish by opening up an impossible-to-maintain 10-length lead in the early going, as that plan failed miserably with that one ending up 2^nd to last. In the end it was another orderly finish with our Top Win and Board Hitter pick, Stela Star, finishing 2^nd and a “B” horse in Laura’s Light take the win as the second favorite.

Next Saturday, we take a break from Churchill Downs and welcome back New York racing with the opening of the Belmont Park meet. Their opening Saturday card is stacked with graded stakes action including the G1 Carter Handicap.  Not to be outdone, Santa Anita is serving up a stakes-packed card as well with the G1 Santa Anita Derby taking center stage featuring a strong supporting cast which includes the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup and the G2 Santa Anita Oaks. Now that’s the kind of summer racing we have been waiting for!

Until this coming weekend, Go Fast and Win!

Mike

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